贵金属：白银价格具备进一步上涨空间

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report posits that silver prices have room for further increase. The Fed is likely to enter a new round of easing cycle in the second half of the year, driven by the heavy interest burden on US Treasury bonds due to the high policy - rate environment and the expected expansion of US fiscal deficits. This will drive up the price of silver [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trump Administration's Tax - Cut Policy and US Treasury Bond Issuance Pressure - The "Beautiful Big Bill" promoted by the Trump administration, which includes extending the main provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap expiring in 2025, is expected to reduce US fiscal revenue by $3.54 trillion and increase the overall deficit by $2.77 trillion over the next ten fiscal years. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positively correlated with the gold price in the medium - term, and it has already driven the international gold price to a record high in the first half of the year [4]. - Affected by the US debt ceiling issue, the net issuance of US Treasury bonds was low in the first half of the year. As of May 2025, the cumulative net issuance of US Treasury bonds was $281.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1%. The balance of the US Treasury's cash account decreased from $811.5 billion on January 29 to $334.6 billion in the week of June 25. After the debt ceiling issue is resolved, there is a financing gap of over $500 billion in the Treasury's cash account, indicating significant issuance pressure on US Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Certainty of Fed Policy Rate Cut and Its Driving Factors - The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariff policies. However, the increase in the US import price index excluding food and energy is much lower than that during 2020 - 2022. US inflation data in May 2025 showed a decline compared to expectations and previous values. In the past, the Fed cut rates during the US election, indicating that its monetary policy is not completely free from political influence [9]. - In the recent interest - rate meeting, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The dot - plot's median interest - rate expectations for 2025 remained at 3.9%, but were raised for 2026 and 2027. Seven voting members expect no rate cut this year, up from four in March. Powell believes the current interest - rate level is appropriate and that tariff - driven inflation may continue [10][11]. - President Trump is dissatisfied with the Fed's interest - rate policy, stating that a rate cut could save the US fiscal expenditure up to $1 trillion. As of May 2025, the cumulative interest expenditure on US Treasury bonds has reached $776 billion, and high interest rates will further increase the deficit during the subsequent concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds [12]. - There is a clear divergence within the Fed regarding the rate - cut rhythm. Fed Governor Waller and Vice - Chair Bowman are in favor of rate cuts. Considering the maintenance of the US dollar's credit and the large interest expenditure squeezing the overall fiscal expenditure, the Fed is certain to cut the policy rate in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for silver prices [13].