国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [4] - Rebar: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Hot-rolled coil: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted spot sentiment [4] - Silicomanganese: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted port quotations [4] - Coke: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations [4] - Coking coal: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [4] - Steam coal: Expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [4] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate widely with the main contract switching [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trend analyses for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs, based on their respective fundamentals and market news [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 716.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.56%. The previous day's positions were 679,900 lots, an increase of 25,675 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., all increased. The basis and spreads showed different changes [6]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 2.72043 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating neutral [6]. Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.98%. For hot-rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.94%. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged. There were also changes in basis and spreads [9]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26, in terms of production, rebar increased by 5.66 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.79 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 12.48 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 2.07 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.99 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 1.14 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 0.72 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.44 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 tons. In mid-June, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.76 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period. In May, the exports of billets, steel bars, and wire rods were 1.372 million tons, 443,000 tons, and 1.018 million tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 344.7%, 126.1%, and 27.3% respectively [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed declines. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also had corresponding changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads between near and far months, and spreads between different varieties [13]. - Macro and Industry News: According to Ferro-Alloy Online, on June 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon and 6517 silicomanganese in different regions had different degrees of increase. UMK announced the manganese ore quotation to China in July 2025, with a decrease compared to June. South32 announced the offer price of South African semi-carbonate lumps in August 2025, with an increase compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous round. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 9,100 tons, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased by 14,600 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 25,500 tons [14][15]. - Trend Intensity: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [17]. - Price and Position Information: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 27 had corresponding changes. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 2,107 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,830 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 775 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,266 lots [17][19]. - Trend Intensity: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [19]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Domestic Market: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [22]. - Fundamentals: The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas are provided. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 lots [23]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating neutral [24]. Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The prices of log spot markets in different regions remained mostly unchanged [25]. - Macro and Industry News: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below the 97.0 mark, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating neutral [27].