Guoxin Securities·2025-06-30 02:27Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the shift from "investment-driven growth" to a potential "efficiency cliff," emphasizing the need for a balance between investment and consumption to sustain economic growth [9][10][12] - It highlights that China's capital-output ratio (K/GDP) has been rising since the 2009 financial crisis, indicating declining investment efficiency, which is linked to insufficient consumer demand [11][12] - The report suggests that to overcome structural issues caused by declining investment efficiency and weak consumer demand, China should transition from an "investment-driven" model to a "consumption-led" growth strategy [12] Industry and Company Insights - The report notes that the high-tech manufacturing macro diffusion index has slightly weakened, with specific sectors like semiconductors showing improved conditions while others like new energy and aerospace are declining [13][14] - In the electric power industry, the report indicates that the domestic offshore wind power development is progressing steadily, with significant government auctions planned for 2024 [3][12] - The report highlights the increasing importance of solid-state battery technology, with companies like QuantumScape making significant advancements in production efficiency [13][32] Fixed Income and REITs - The report outlines that the public REITs index has seen a decline, with the average cash distribution rate significantly higher than mainstream fixed-income assets, indicating potential opportunities in consumption-related REITs [24][22] - It mentions that the market for convertible bonds is currently favorable, with many individual bonds experiencing price increases, suggesting a strong performance outlook [20][21] - The report also notes that the issuance of long-term bonds has increased, reflecting a more active trading environment despite slight price adjustments [18][19]