Soochow Securities·2025-06-30 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The easing of Middle East tensions has led to a decline in European gas prices, while high temperatures have driven up US gas prices, with domestic prices remaining stable [4][9] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate a slight increase in US gas supply and demand, with total supply rising by 0.2% week-on-week to 1,125 billion cubic feet per day, and total demand increasing by 6.3% to 1,047 billion cubic feet per day [16][24] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the domestic market, with a gradual implementation of pricing reforms across various cities [40] Price Tracking - As of June 27, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 4.1% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 17.8% [9][14] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price was reported at 4,416 CNY per ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.2% [14][29] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes that the average total supply of natural gas in the US has increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while total demand has grown by 1.6% year-on-year [16][24] - European gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [19] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 64% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY per cubic meter [40] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [47][49] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide greater flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing for a deviation of 10% from the 90% storage goal [52] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from pricing reforms, highlighting New Energy, China Gas, and Kunlun Energy as key investment opportunities [53][54] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and New Energy [54]