Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The mid - line trend is influenced by positive macro factors like the rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation [5][11]. - The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900 [8]. - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The market is in a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. Macro factors are expected to push up aluminum prices in early July [5]. - Trend Logic: The rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation are positive for aluminum prices [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold low - position long orders in early July, and new orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract was predicted to be between 20400 - 20900 [7]. - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [8]. Overall View - Aluminum Ore Market: The short - term shortage of domestic aluminum ore supply is difficult to ease, and the purchase price may be lowered. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea in July - August is expected to appear, but the price increase space is limited [9]. - Alumina Market: By June 26, the installed capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 89.7 million tons and an operating rate of 79.52%. The supply and demand at home and abroad will be in surplus in the second half of the year, but the surplus degree is narrower than in Q1 [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The domestic production capacity is approaching the 45 - million - ton ceiling, and the production increase space is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1200 yuan/ton. The impact of the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation on exports remains to be seen [9]. - Demand: The overall demand for aluminum products is weak in the off - season. The starting rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees [10]. - Inventory: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 461,000 tons, up about 3% from last week and about 40% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,900 tons, up about 2% from last week and about 1% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has slightly increased [10][16]. - Profit: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2630 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 450 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [11][18]. - Market Expectation: If the US dollar index or A - shares decline next week, the upward trend of aluminum prices will pause, and the market will enter a wide - range oscillation adjustment [11]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of some imported ores are expected to show a weakening oscillation trend. The price of thermal coal has rebounded, and the domestic alumina price has continued to decline [12]. - The price of aluminum products has changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [12]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore has rebounded, and the inventory of alumina has slightly increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has accumulated, but the accumulation space is limited [14][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - The starting rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1220 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 1490 yuan/ton last week. The current spread may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34][35]. Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 7 weeks. The short side has reduced positions in the past month, and the long side has remained stable. The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation [36]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net short position has slightly shrunk this week. Both the long and short sides have significantly increased positions since the end of May, and the market divergence is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish next week [39].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250630
Chang Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-30 02:29