东吴证券晨会纪要-20250630

Macro Strategy - The current market is entering a risk-off phase, with a potential shift towards growth sectors as seen in previous cycles in early 2024 and late 2025 [1][6][7] - Initial performance is led by TMT sectors, followed by rotation into upstream resources and finance, with a short-term rebound in consumer and manufacturing sectors [1][6] - The macroeconomic fundamentals have not fundamentally changed compared to late 2024 and early 2025, suggesting a continuation of previous funding-driven sector rotations [1][7] - Defensive strategies are recommended, focusing on stable sectors such as banks, utilities, and leading home appliance companies, with A50 and CSI 300 indices as core holdings [1][7] Industry Insights - The report highlights the successful registration of 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrate capacity by Jing Sheng Machinery (300316), which is expected to benefit from the industrialization of 8-inch substrates [3][10] - The bankruptcy of Wolfspeed due to $6.5 billion in debt has significantly enhanced the competitiveness of domestic suppliers, with prices for 6-inch SiC substrates dropping from $1,500 to below $400 [3][10] - Jing Sheng Machinery's production capacity will reach 900,000 pieces, with 650,000 pieces being 8-inch substrates, allowing the company to capitalize on the trend towards 8-inch SiC substrates, which can reduce costs by 35% [3][10] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 2 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 17, 16, and 13 times, respectively, and maintains a "buy" rating [5][11] Fixed Income Insights - Yongxi Convertible Bond (118057.SH) is set to begin online subscription on June 26, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 1.165 billion yuan, aimed at advanced packaging technology R&D and working capital [2][8] - The bond has a maturity of 6 years with a credit rating of A+/A+, and the expected listing price is between 120.30 and 134.02 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0049% [2][8]