Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The current ICE raw sugar futures price has partially reflected the expected high - yield in Brazil. After breaking through the key support level of 16.5 cents per pound, price - sensitive buying has significantly increased, and the basis is strong. With the recent deterioration of weather in Brazil, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly after the July delivery. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week. Although there were profit - taking orders from long - position holders at the 5800 - level, there is still room for upward movement based on the position structure and market sentiment, so long positions can be held for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The focus of the raw sugar market has shifted to the new crushing season in Brazil. Different institutions have released forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil [6]. - Demand: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%. The cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons. The industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, about 0.19 million tons more than the same period last year [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of June 27, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 23,992, with 0 valid forecasts, totaling 23,992, down from 27,669 last week [6]. - Basis: The spot transaction price of sugar in Guangxi was 6,012 yuan per ton. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - Profit: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was about 5,574 yuan per ton, and that from Thailand was 5,680 yuan per ton. The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week, and the out - of - quota import profit remained flat [6]. - Macro: The short - term geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, which has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September have increased, and there are expectations of incremental reserve policies in China, which have boosted market confidence in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Long positions can continue to be held. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. After the July delivery, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week, and there is still room for upward movement, so long positions can be held for now [6]. 2. Weekly Sugar Market News - The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production and sales both increased year - on - year [15]. - As of the week of June 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 74, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 149,700 tons or 5.25% week - on - week [15]. - In the second half of May, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 8.86% year - on - year, with an increase in the sugar - making ratio [16]. 3. Weekly Sugar Data - Domestic Production: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [21]. - Domestic Sales: The domestic sugar market has entered the pure sales stage. The cumulative sugar sales as of May were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [25]. - Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports: There are data on Brazilian sugar exports and domestic sugar imports, but specific trends are not detailed in the summary part [32]. - Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [38]. - Out - of - Quota Import Cost: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [42]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 27,669 last week to 23,992 as of June 27 [48].
白糖周报：郑糖稳步上行，多单继续持有-20250630
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-30 02:56