黄金、白银期货品种周报2025.06.30-07.04-20250630

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Gold, Silver Futures Variety Weekly Report [2] - Report period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be at the end of the trend [7] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, gold was affected by geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy divergence, tariff policy nodes, and weak economic data, showing a volatile downward trend. Future gold prices need to focus on the Fed's policy shift timing, the sustainability of global central bank gold purchases, and the inflation path. Geopolitical black - swan events are the biggest upside risk factor [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 766 - 775, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This week's strategy suggestion: The main gold contract 2510 is short - biased in the short term. The lower support is 754 - 760, and the upper pressure is 784 - 790 [12] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Gold futures and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways movement, and it may be close to the end of the trend [33] - Trend judgment logic: Last week, silver showed a volatile trend affected by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks. Future positive factors for silver prices include strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, global liquidity easing, and a weaker US dollar. The decline in the gold - silver ratio attracts capital inflows, and geopolitical risks increase hedging demand, with an annual supply gap of 3659 tons. Potential pressures are the high US Treasury yields increasing holding costs and weak manufacturing suppressing industrial demand [33] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [34] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly. The lower support interval was 8400 - 8500, and the upper pressure was 8900 - 9000 [36] - This week's strategy suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly. The lower support interval is 8300 - 8500, and the upper pressure is 8900 - 9000 [36] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides data on Shanghai Silver futures and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]