光伏新政提振市场，工业硅触底反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon hit bottom and rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies to promote high - quality development of new energy greatly boosted market confidence. Supply was generally weak, and demand was also facing uncertainties. Social inventory decreased to 542,000 tons due to monthly production decline, and the spot market stabilized and rebounded [2][6][9]. - Overall, the new policies on new energy development boosted market sentiment. Supply continued to contract, terminal consumption slowed down, social inventory would keep falling, and the spot market rebounded after stabilization. Technically, the futures price was expected to continue the upward trend in the short term [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the industrial silicon main contract price rose from 7,390 yuan/ton to 8,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.66%. The price of oxygen - passed 553 spot increased by 1.84%, and the price of organic silicon DMC spot increased by 0.48%. The prices of other products remained unchanged. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 3.04% to 542,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro: From January to May, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with a 9.1% decline in May. However, the equipment manufacturing industry showed a supporting effect, with a 7.2% year - on - year profit growth from January to May, pulling up the overall profit of large - scale industrial enterprises by 2.4 percentage points [7]. - Supply: As of June 27th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.6%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas dropped to 215, with an overall opening rate of 30.8%. Xinjiang's opening rate remained at 70%, and the production reduction of large factories was slow. The opening rate in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly during the wet season, but the increment was limited [8]. - Demand: The polysilicon market had limited transactions, and large factories were cautious about increasing production. The silicon wafer market declined significantly, and many enterprises jointly reduced production to support prices. Some photovoltaic cell manufacturers adjusted production lines and adopted a flexible production - based - on - sales strategy. Component prices were stable, but most manufacturers reduced production in July, and overall terminal orders were weak [6][8][9]. - Inventory: As of June 27th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 542,000 tons. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the new delivery standard, the 5 - series warehouse receipts were actively registered, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [8]. Industry News - On June 26th, at the press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of the end of May, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 45.7% of the total, exceeding that of thermal power. To improve new energy consumption, three aspects were coordinated: coordinating power transmission and local consumption, coordinating grid and regulation capacity construction, and coordinating energy demand and supply [10]. Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in main production areas, and prices of related products over different time periods [12][14].