镍周报：情绪扰动降温，镍价震荡偏弱-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroscopically, the Q1 economic data in the US was below expectations, but recent performance was decent with no obvious economic disturbances. Geopolitical conflicts cooled down, and risk appetite in the previously weak commodity market increased, pushing up prices [2]. - Fundamentally, the shortage of nickel ore eased, and smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Nickel prices hit a new low at the beginning of the week, stimulating downstream purchases and significantly raising spot premiums. Stainless - steel prices rebounded due to sentiment, but spot sales were lackluster, and the terminal market remained weak. Ferronickel faced dual pressure, with ferronickel plants suspending spot quotes and only maintaining long - term contracts. The price of nickel sulfate was stable with no obvious fundamental improvement [2]. - In the later stage, there is no substantial driver for nickel price increases, and prices may回调 after the sentiment cools. After the implementation of the "Regulations on Ensuring the Payment of Accounts of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" in early June, the payment cycle of car manufacturers to suppliers has been significantly shortened to within 60 days, which may lead to tight cash flow for car manufacturers. BYD plans to stop night - shift production in some factories, and production may be reduced by one - third. With stable terminal consumption expected, the tightened production schedules of leading car manufacturers may drag down the raw material replenishment of upstream material factories, and the new energy sector may weaken significantly. Traditional consumption has no improvement expectation, supply remains relatively high, and the fundamentals may weaken marginally. The price decline may be mainly due to the lack of strong real - world support for last week's price increase, and prices may fall after risk appetite cools [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 120480 | 117440 | 3040 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15245 | 14804 | 441 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 204294 | 205140 | - 846 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21257 | 21478 | - 221 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2850 | 3100 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 550 | 50 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 922 | 942 | - 20 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 92.1 | 92.6 | - 0.45 | million tons | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Nickel Ore: The shortage of nickel ore eased. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore from the Philippines rose from $51.5/wet ton to $52.5/wet ton, while that from Indonesia fell from $40.9/wet ton to $38.4/wet ton. Smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Although the transaction price of Philippine nickel ore in July remained high, the shipping progress was slow, and the resource side's transition to a loose pattern was slow, so costs may remain high [4]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 921 Yuan/nickel point to 913 Yuan/nickel point. In May, China's ferronickel production was expected to be about 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and in June, it was expected to be 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In May, China's ferronickel imports totaled about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's ferronickel production in May was 141,400 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.89% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.36%. In June, the expected production was 142,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. In June, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.816 million tons, an increase of about 18 tons compared with the same period last year, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. In May, the actual production of stainless steel was 1.87 million tons, stronger than the expected 1.78 million tons, the same as April's production. Overall, due to cost pressure, Indonesia's ferronickel production has declined for two consecutive months. Nickel ore demand has weakened, and the shortage has marginally improved. Although stainless - steel prices rebounded, spot transactions were limited, and it was difficult to boost ferronickel consumption. In the short term, ferronickel may stop falling but has limited rebound potential and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - Nickel Sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,400 Yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 29,000 Yuan/ton to 28,000 Yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and 2.27% respectively. In June, the production of ternary materials increased again, with a total of about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 30.95% and 1.36% respectively. As of June 20, the downstream nickel sulfate inventory days remained at 12 days from the beginning of the month, and the downstream inventory was at a low level, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 10 days, at a relatively high level. At the end of the month, there is an expectation of downstream replenishment, but due to the contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules, the intensity of downstream replenishment may be lower than before [6]. - Macro - level: The Q1 economic data was weak, but durable goods orders were strong, and the labor market remained resilient. As of June 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 and the previous value of 246,000. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.5%, lower than the expected - 0.2% and the previous value of - 0.2%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was + 0.5%, lower than the expected + 1.2% and the previous value of + 1.2%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in Q1 was + 3.5%, higher than the expected + 3.4% and the previous value of + 3.4%. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in May was + 16.4%, higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials believe that both inflation and the unemployment rate are expected to rise, and the economic outlook is still uncertain under tariff pressure. Powell advocates continued waiting and deciding on monetary policy after more economic data is available, while some officials believe that the employment market is under pressure and support an early interest - rate cut [6][7]. - Supply - side: In June, domestic production capacity was stable, but smelter production schedules declined. According to the SMM's data, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in June was 34,150 tons, further decreasing from May's production. The sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, the same as the previous period. The expected operating rate in June was 63.13%, about 2.21 percentage points lower than last month. In May, the domestic export volume of electrolytic nickel was about 13,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.27% but a significant month - on - month decline. As of June 26, the export profit of nickel in China was $96.26/ton according to the SMM's data. Overall, the center of export profit has moved down, suppressing exports. Coupled with the weakening of nickel prices, domestic supply is expected to decline [7]. - Terminal Consumption: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market in China was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency sales data, terminal consumption was stable. Although the year - on - year growth rate remained high, the data in June last year was weak after the subsidy policy was issued, so the base effect may provide support. As the base gradually increases after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Currently, the core of consumption lies in vehicle manufacturers' production schedules. Affected by the payment - deadline policy, vehicle manufacturers' cash - flow pressure may become prominent, and they may enter the stage of active inventory reduction. BYD has announced the suspension of night - shift production in some factories, and the production of some factories may decline by one - third. The contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules may have a negative impact on upstream battery cell and material factories [8]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 21,257 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 221 tons, and the LME inventory is 204,294 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 846 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 225,551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,067 tons [8]. 3.3 Industry News - GEM: As of the end of 2024, the company's domestic production capacity of ternary cathode materials was 20,000 tons/year, the production capacity of the phosphoric (manganese) iron - lithium demonstration line was 10,000 tons/year, the production capacity of cobalt - acid lithium was 5,000 tons/year, and the production capacity of sodium - battery cathode materials was 10,000 tons/year. The company plans to cooperate with strategic partners such as South Korea's ECOPRO to build a full - industrial - chain strategic cooperation body of "nickel resources - precursors - cathode materials" in Indonesia. The project will be implemented in three phases, with the first and second phases planning to build factories with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of cathode materials and the third phase planning to build a factory with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 tons of cathode materials, aiming to expand the project market globally [10]. - Indonesia's MMP Nickel Smelting Project: The 2 - nd electric furnace of the project located in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, was successfully ignited. The project team overcame various difficulties during the project implementation and laid a solid foundation for subsequent production [10]. - Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base: On June 25, 2025, the opening ceremony of the first - phase project of Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base was successfully held. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel - based materials, which is an important milestone in Zhongwei's global development and the first new - energy material base in Africa [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, the domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [12][14].