氧化铝周报：商品氛围偏好，氧化铝企稳震荡-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price rebounded in the short term due to the decline in warehouse receipt inventory and the short - covering of some bears. However, considering the increasing supply and rigid demand, the low - inventory situation of alumina is difficult to last long, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure above the 3000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 2986 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price fell from 3197 yuan/ton to 3121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 202 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 363 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 31.93 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 42928 tons to 30319 tons, a decrease of 12609 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 3.32% last week, closing at 2986 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3121 yuan/ton on Friday, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price and supply of domestic bauxite did not change significantly. The news of the long - term contract for Guinea ore in the third quarter had limited changes compared with the second quarter. The rainy season in Guinea currently has limited impact on ore extraction and transportation. The alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina plants that had reduced production increased their production capacity, but the spot circulation in the market was still low due to the strong reluctance to sell. As of June 26, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 89.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.52%. The operating capacity of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable, and the demand for alumina remained high. The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 300 tons to 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - The supply and demand of the bauxite end were stable last week. The freight from overseas Guinea to northern Chinese ports remained between 24 - 25 US dollars, and the ore price remained unchanged overall. The operating capacity of alumina increased slightly last week, but the increase in goods flowing into the spot market was limited, and the inventory of alumina factories increased. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 300 tons to 0 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts, with strong fear of price drops. Overall, the downward trend of warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. As the delivery month approached, the high virtual - to - real ratio on the market forced some short - sellers to close their positions, and alumina rebounded in the short term. From the perspective of supply and demand, the continuous resumption of production on the supply side and the recent small - scale import of alumina from Indonesia made the increasing supply trend difficult to change. Coupled with the rigid demand on the consumption side, it was expected that the low - inventory situation of alumina could not last long, and the upside space of the futures price was limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure above the 3000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [6] Industry News - Shanxi Huarui Century Energy Holding Co., Ltd. won the mining right of the Huazhai Block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province at a price of 3.056 billion yuan. India's aluminum industry company announced that it would acquire 100% of the equity of the US specialty alumina manufacturer AluChem for 125 million US dollars through its wholly - owned subsidiary Aditya. AluChem is a North - American specialty alumina producer with three factories in Ohio and Arkansas, and has more than 45 years of experience in providing high - performance alumina for industrial applications [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures and spot, spot premium, inter - period spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][12][13][15]