锌周报：宏微观共振，锌价低位反弹-20250630

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical conflicts eased, the Fed's rate - cut expectation strengthened, and the market risk preference improved. Overseas refinery strikes and potential downward adjustment of domestic supply increments led to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices. However, it's currently the off - season for consumption, and there are still concerns about inventory build - up and technical pressure, so caution is needed when chasing the price increase [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc rose from 21,845 yuan/ton on June 20th to 22,410 yuan/ton on June 27th, an increase of 565 yuan/ton. LME zinc rose from 2,649 dollars/ton to 2,778.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 129.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.25 to 8.07. The SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 7.95 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from 140 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Futures Market: The main ZN2508 contract of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level, closing at 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 2.59%. LME zinc broke through the 2,700 dollars/ton mark, closing at 2,778.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 4.89% [6] - Spot Market: The new long - term contracts were implemented, and traders increased their quotes. But due to the rising price and the off - season, downstream purchasing weakened, and the premium continued to decline [7] - Inventory: As of June 27th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons. As of June 26th, the domestic social inventory increased, with a significant increase in Tianjin due to reduced consumption, while Shanghai and Guangdong had a slight decrease due to less incoming goods [8] - Macro - economy: The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly decline was 0.5%, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was only 0.5%, the weakest since the COVID - 19 outbreak. The core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5%. The initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, and the previous week's continuing jobless claims reached 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. The May durable goods orders increased by 16.4% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations [8][9] 3. Industry News - In July, the average processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 200 yuan/metal ton and 6.46 dollars/dry ton respectively [12] - Workers at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru went on strike on June 25th after wage negotiation failure, and the resumption time depends on further negotiations [12] - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain, with normal production but restricted transportation, and are gradually recovering [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot and LME premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc production, smelter profits, net imports of refined zinc, and downstream enterprise operating rates [13][21][27]