华联期货生猪年年报：产能去化放缓，猪价僵持

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental Viewpoints: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - Strategy and Outlook: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - Fundamental Views: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - Strategy Views and Outlook: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures and Spot Prices: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - Futures Spreads: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - Standard and Fat Pig Prices: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - Piglet and Binary Sow Prices: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - Culled Sow Prices: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - Inventory of Commercial Pigs: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - Live Pig Slaughter Volume: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - Substitute Prices: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]