豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250630

Overall Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures will continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply is ample with high imports and high mill operation rates, but there are uncertainties from the strengthening Brazilian soybean premium and Sino - US trade relations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons with an operation rate of 67.02%. Soybean inventory was 6.3799 million tons, up 383,900 tons (6.40%) from last week. Soybean meal inventory was 508,900 tons, up 98,900 tons (24.12%) from last week. With high imports and high operation rates, supply is abundant, but there are uncertainties from Brazilian premiums and Sino - US trade. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 3120 in the short - term, and range trading was recommended [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract may continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation, with an expected trading range of 2880 - 3080 [11]. 1.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is in a high - level oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals boost mill crushing, while weak summer consumption and falling crude oil prices due to the easing Middle - East situation suppress prices. However, there are uncertainties from US biodiesel policies and the key growth period of US soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 453,000 tons, up 23,800 tons from last week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 886,300 tons, up 39,300 tons from last week. High soybean arrivals, weak summer consumption, and falling crude oil prices suppress prices, but there are uncertainties from US policies and US soybean growth. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [31]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel overall, with bullish funds. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price was expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel overall, with slightly bullish funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an expected trading range of 7800 - 8100 [35]. 2.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, and weekly port inventory. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][47][49]