中东局势缓和，金价高位回调

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]