中原期货晨会纪要-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market showed an upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year. The market is expected to have mainly structural opportunities during the upcoming interim report season. Investment directions to focus on include sectors with good interim report performance and high certainty, assets with high safety margins, the large - consumption sector boosted by policies, and core assets of innovative drugs [8]. - The performance of various commodity sectors is diverse. For example, some chemical products like PTA and PX had price increases, while some agricultural products like palm oil and corn had price decreases. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3]. - In the stock and option markets, there are opportunities and risks. For A - shares, the recent performance of the market is strong, but attention should be paid to factors such as the impact of US Treasury over - issuance on liquidity in July. In the option market, different index options have different characteristics and trading strategies [22][23][25]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - From June 28th - 29th, 2025, the 2025 Listed Companies Forum was held in Wenzhou. Representatives from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Hong Kong stock exchanges released multi - dimensional reform signals. More than 30 A - share companies have submitted applications for H - share listings, and over 20 A - share companies have announced H - share listing plans [6]. - China decided to conditionally resume imports of some aquatic products from Japan under certain conditions [6]. - Hikvision strongly opposed the Canadian government's decision to shut down its Canadian subsidiary. The Chinese embassy in Canada also expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7]. - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao said that Hong Kong should play a role in "connecting internally and communicating externally" and seize opportunities [7]. - In the first half of this year, theme funds related to innovative drugs, humanoid robots, the Beijing Stock Exchange, and new consumption had good investment returns, while AI theme funds had relatively poor performance [7]. - Last week, the A - share market rose. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high this year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively. The market is expected to have mainly structural opportunities in the future [8]. - The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 1st. It is predicted that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan/ton [8]. - From January to May this year, domestic passenger ship passenger volume increased by 7.37% year - on - year, international - voyaging ship arrivals and departures increased by 2.45% year - on - year, and international - voyaging ship cargo volume increased by 1.66% year - on - year, indicating an improving economic situation [8] 3.2 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market: The price is basically stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - Oil market: The trading volume decreased, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile [12]. - Sugar market: The sugar price may continue to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [12]. - Corn market: It is recommended to operate with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [12]. - Pig market: The spot price is slightly stronger, and the futures market needs to see if the spot price can provide further support [14]. - Egg market: The supply exceeds demand, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea market: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term market may fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to export quotas [13][14]. - Caustic soda market: The fundamentals lack strong support, and although the price rebounded on Thursday, the upward space is not optimistic [14]. - Coking coal market: Affected by safety inspections, the start - up rate decreased, and the short - term trend is firm, but continuous rebound depends on terminal demand and supply reduction [15][16]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum market: Driven by positive trade negotiation information, the prices are strong [16]. - Alumina market: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be low in the medium term. Attention should be paid to macro - market sentiment [16]. - Steel market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils rose at night on Friday, but the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season [16]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market: The supply and demand situation is complex, and the trading strategy is short - term long and long - term short [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate market: The price has broken through the upper limit of the shock range, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait for the inventory inflection point signal [18]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock index market: The market is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the support at 3410 and trading volume. For theme stocks, pay attention to low - buying opportunities for IM and IC [22][23]. - Option market: The trading volume of options increased last week, and different index options have different characteristics. Trend investors can consider long - 1000 and short - 50 arbitrage, and volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [25].