申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season, and spot prices were generally mediocre. The futures price fluctuated more with costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices declined, weakening cost support. Future focus should be on the cooling of cost - end raw materials mainly crude oil and the reality of the seasonal demand off - season [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7245, 7220, and 7302 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 14, and 2 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.19%, and 0.03%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7041, 7019, and 7103, with changes of - 12, - 11, and - 5 and percentage changes of - 0.17%, - 0.16%, and - 0.07%. The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 36087, 214, and 297767, and the trading volumes of PP were 34283, 90, and 223643. The open interests of LL were 115196, 1241, and 460583, and those of PP were 100898, 1141, and 425262. The changes in open interests of LL were - 2223, 57, and - 10437, and those of PP were 313, 2, and - 4105 [2] - Spread Information: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 25, - 82, and 57, compared with previous values of 15, - 66, and 51. For PP, the current spreads were 22, - 84, and 62, compared with previous values of 23, - 78, and 55 [2] Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2397 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2419 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, 590 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - Mid - stream Market: The current spot price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7800 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the three markets were 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7250 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (June 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.52 per barrel, up $0.28 or 0.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.80 - $66.09. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.77 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.20 - $68.42 [2]