新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-30）-20250630

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "Rebound"; soda ash is rated as "Oscillation" [2]. - Financial Industry: Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Upward"; 2 - year, 5 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillation"; 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Rebound"; gold and silver are rated as "Correction"; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is rated as "Oscillation" [2][4]. - Light Industry: Pulp is rated as "Weak Oscillation"; logs are rated as "Strong Oscillation"; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "High - level Oscillation"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Oscillation with a Bearish Bias" [5]. - Agricultural Products: Live pigs are rated as "Rebound" [7]. - Soft Commodities: Rubber is rated as "Rebound"; PX, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See"; PTA and MEG are rated as "Short at High Levels" [9]. 2. Core Views - Black Industry: The overall supply of iron ore is increasing, demand is relatively low, and port inventories are entering a stocking cycle. Coal and coke prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and high iron - water production. The supply - demand structure of rolled steel has weakened, and glass prices have rebounded at low levels [2]. - Financial Industry: The central bank suggests strengthening monetary policy regulation. The stock market shows different trends, and the bond market rebounds slightly. Gold prices may correct in the short term [4]. - Light Industry: Pulp prices are expected to oscillate weakly, while log prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate at high levels. The soybean market is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. - Agricultural Products: Live pig prices are expected to continue rising, driven by supply - demand changes and market sentiment [7]. - Soft Commodities: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely. PX prices follow oil prices, PTA and MEG are suitable for shorting at high levels, and polyester products show different trends [9]. 3. Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron Ore: Recent spot trading is weak, and the basis continues to narrow. Global shipments and arrivals are increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It rebounds in the short term, and attention should be paid to the trend of iron - water production [2]. - Coal and Coke: Environmental inspections have led to a decline in coking coal supply, and prices have rebounded strongly. Coke prices are under pressure, and inventories are increasing. Attention should be paid to iron - water production and supply - side trends [2]. - Rolled Steel: In the off - season, demand has weakened, production has increased, and inventories have started to rise. The overall demand is difficult to reverse seasonally, and prices may find support at the valley - electricity cost level in the short term [2]. - Glass: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The daily melting volume will first decrease and then increase. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventories are at a high level. Prices have rebounded at low levels, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. - Soda Ash: It shows an oscillating trend [2]. Financial Industry - Stock Index Futures/Options: Different stock indices show different trends. The central bank's policy suggestions and economic data affect the market. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold and Silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. Although the logic driving the price increase has not completely reversed, prices may correct in the short term due to factors such as interest - rate and tariff policies [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Spot prices are stabilizing, costs are decreasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, to - be - arrived volumes are expected to decrease, and costs are providing support. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. The supply of soybean oil and palm oil is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [5]. - Soybean Meal and Others: The soybean market is weak due to favorable weather and high production. Domestic imports are large, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Supply - side sentiment is strong, and prices are rising. The average transaction weight is decreasing, and prices are expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand shows a structural recovery, and inventories are in different states. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - PX: Geopolitical tensions are easing, supply is increasing, and prices follow oil prices [9]. - PTA: Costs are oscillating after a decline, and the supply - demand situation is weakening in the medium term. Prices follow costs in the short term [9]. - MEG: Arrivals are low, and the supply - demand situation is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. Prices are affected by the general market atmosphere [9]. - PR: Driven by cost factors, the market may adjust with a bullish bias [9]. - PF: Terminal performance is average, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [9].