国新国证期货早报-20250630

Macroeconomic Situation - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guidance on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", with 19 measures such as setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care to support three major consumption areas [1] - The Central Financial Commission issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Accelerated Construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center", and the financial regulatory authorities and the Shanghai government issued a supporting action plan [1] - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan on the day [1] - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, revised down the 2025 GDP forecast, and revised up inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2] - UK's May car exports to the US dropped 55.4% year - on - year, and car production dropped 32.8% year - on - year, hitting a 76 - year low [2] - Trump decided to terminate trade negotiations with Canada and may impose new tariffs due to Canada's digital service tax, affecting the Canadian dollar and stock and bond markets [2] REITs Market - The first shopping mall public REITs of the year, CICC China Greentown Commercial REITs, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with a fundraising scale of 1.58 billion yuan and a offline subscription multiple of 249 times [2] Stock Index Futures - On June 27, A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. The trading volume was 1.5411 trillion yuan, a decrease of 42.1 billion yuan from the previous day [3] - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on June 27, closing at 3921.76, a decrease of 24.26 [4] Coke and Coking Coal Futures - On June 27, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1425.5, a rise of 35.5 [5] - On June 27, the coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 855.9 yuan, a rise of 39.8 [6] - The port coke spot price was stable, with supply and demand showing certain trends. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and the market was mixed [8] Sugar Futures - Brazilian sugar production in June is expected to decline significantly. The Zhengzhou sugar futures 2509 contract rose slightly at night [8] Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures showed narrow - range fluctuations at night on June 27. Inventory and warehouse receipt data had certain changes [9] Soybean Meal Futures - The international soybean market is affected by weather and planting area expectations. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the short term [9] Live Pig Futures - On June 27, live pig futures fluctuated. The market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, and the upside space is limited [10] Copper Futures - The Shanghai copper market's price rose under multiple factors, but there are still uncertainties [12] Cotton Futures - The Zhengzhou cotton futures' main contract closed at 13845 yuan/ton on Friday night. The cotton inventory decreased [12] Iron Ore Futures - On June 27, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.99%, closing at 716.5 yuan. The market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand [12] Asphalt Futures - On June 27, the asphalt 2509 main contract fell 0.03%, closing at 3561 yuan. The market is in a weak fundamental situation [13] Log Futures - The log 2509 contract's price and trading volume had specific performance on June 27. The spot price was stable, and the import volume decreased [13] Steel Market - The "Two New" policies are effective, and the state supports equipment renovation. The steel market demand is weak in the off - season [14] Alumina Market - The supply of domestic alumina is relatively loose, and the demand is relatively stable [14] Aluminum Futures - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the off - season in the short term but is expected to improve in the long term [15] Lithium Carbonate Market - The price of lithium carbonate rose, but the market still has an oversupply situation [15]