研究所晨会观点精萃-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade negotiations have made progress, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. However, short - term market sentiment in China has declined, and domestic risk has cooled [2]. - For asset classes, the stock index is expected to experience short - term volatile corrections, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black commodities are in short - term low - level volatile rebounds, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is advised; precious metals are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: In May, US consumer spending unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%. Inflation rose moderately, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the US dollar was generally weak. Global trade negotiations progress led to an increase in US consumer confidence and a decrease in the enthusiasm for safe - haven assets [2]. - Domestic: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce organized a new energy vehicle consumption season. Consumption policy stimulus has increased, which is helpful for boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term. However, short - term domestic market sentiment has declined [2][3]. - Asset operations: For stocks, short - term cautious long positions; for treasury bonds, cautious observation; for commodities, different sectors have different operations as mentioned above [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to fall due to the drag of sectors such as banking, insurance, oil and gas exploration, and digital currency. Policy stimulus is beneficial in the short term, but market sentiment has declined. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Recently, precious metals have corrected from high levels. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran weakened the safe - haven sentiment, and weak US economic data led to a decline in gold prices. Although the PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, the safe - haven property still provides support. In the short term, gold is expected to be volatile and weak [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: As the 90 - day tariff suspension deadline approaches, the White House may extend it. Fed officials' statements and Trump's possible appointment of the Fed chair have increased the rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar has declined. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. Wait for the right time to short [5]. - Aluminum: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the aluminum price has continued to rise slightly. LME inventory increased last Friday, and the domestic aluminum inventory drawdown may have reached an inflection point [5]. - Aluminum Alloy: It has entered the off - season, and manufacturing orders are weak. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term with limited upside [5]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and the operating rate has rebounded but is still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there are medium - term constraints [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Macro sentiment has boosted the price, and it is short - term strong and volatile. Fundamentals are loose, and opportunities after the rebound meets resistance can be awaited [7]. - Industrial Silicon: There are four short - term positive factors, and it is volatile and strong. Short - term long positions can be considered, or wait for opportunities after the rebound [7]. - Polysilicon: It is short - term strong and volatile due to industrial silicon production cuts. Fundamentals are loose, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [8]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium has been withdrawn, and the market focus has returned to supply and demand. The OPEC+ meeting's August production decision will be crucial, and the market generally expects a continued increase of 411,000 barrels per day. The price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [9]. - Asphalt: Oil prices are low, and asphalt prices are strong and volatile. Shipments have improved, and inventory drawdown is good. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [10]. - PX: Cost support is strong in the short term, but oil price declines bring uncertainties. It is expected to be strong and volatile following crude oil [10]. - PTA: The basis remains high, but downstream demand is expected to be low for a long time. The upward price space is limited [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: After the decline in oil prices, the price center has dropped, and it is expected to be volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: The price has followed the decline in crude oil prices. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term [11]. - Methanol: There are negative factors such as increased inland arrivals and port inventory accumulation, but there is also support from inland maintenance in July. It is volatile and strong [12]. - PP: Production has increased slightly, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [13]. - LLDPE: Production has increased, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The weather in the main growing areas is favorable for crop growth, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The USDA report in late June may have a negative impact. Policy changes before July need attention [15]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the 09 - contract cycle. Rapeseed meal is dominated by soybean meal [15]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: For rapeseed oil, import news eases supply concerns, but high port inventory increases risks. For soybean oil, supply is loose, and the inventory is seasonally recovering but still at a low level [16]. - Palm Oil: The positive factors are exhausted, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to increased domestic inventory [17][18]. - Corn: The spot market is strong, but the futures market is affected by rumors. After the seasonal wheat substitution, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. - Pigs: The supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, the flexibility of slaughter weight increases price resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [18].