Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows positive signs with the easing expectation of global tariff frictions and the decline of the US dollar index, but some commodities face fundamental pressures and potential risks [2]. - Most commodities are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand patterns of some commodities will gradually become more relaxed [2][7][8][9]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity and a slight decrease in the aluminum product start - up rate. Although the macro - environment is favorable, the fundamentals face the dual pressures of weakening demand and weakening cost support, so it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - Alumina: The alumina factory's production is stable, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The electrolytic aluminum factory maintains high - load production. With the weak operation of the US dollar index and the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the alumina futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Industrial Silicon: Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the price rebounded. The supply may increase in the future, and the demand has some uncertainties. After the futures price rebounds, the rebound amplitude may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The domestic supply elasticity is greater than the demand elasticity. The production is expected to reach a new high in June, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices above 65,000 yuan [2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price is affected by the cost - end and the production situation. The short - term capital attention is high, and it is recommended to wait and see if there are anti - involution actions in the industry [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The supply - demand of steel is relatively balanced, with a narrowing futures premium and high valuation. It is expected that the steel futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions [3]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand is neutral, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The valuation is neutral. It is expected that the iron ore futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. - Coking Coal: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. The futures are slightly at a premium to the spot. It is expected that the coking coal futures and spot prices will continue to oscillate this week, and it is recommended to close short positions and hold long positions [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state. The domestic soybean arrivals will be large later, and the unilateral trend follows the international cost end. It is necessary to focus on the USDA report [4][5]. - Corn: The supply - demand this year has tightened marginally. The spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [5]. - White Sugar: The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly later, and it is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock the futures price for sugar users [5]. - Cotton: The international cotton export sales have decreased, and the domestic downstream start - up rate has declined. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound strategy [5]. - Palm Oil: The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand for exports has increased. The short - term supply - demand is increasing, and it is in a relatively balanced state. It is recommended to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [5]. - Eggs: The supply is high, and the demand is affected by low prices. The cost provides support, and the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Hogs: The short - term pig price is expected to be strong, and the medium - term supply will continue to increase, and the price center will gradually move down. It is recommended to pay attention to the enterprise's slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening trends [6]. - Apples: The early - maturing varieties' opening prices will affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is improving marginally. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [7]. - PVC: The fundamentals change little. The supply will increase in the third quarter, and the social inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to sell call options above 4,950 yuan [7]. - PTA: The short - term supply of PX and PTA is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short the processing margin at high prices in the long - term [8]. - Rubber: The supply is increasing steadily, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short lightly above 14,000 yuan, and hold positive arbitrage positions in RU - NR [8]. - Glass: The supply - demand is weak. The supply will increase in July, and the inventory is difficult to digest. It is recommended to short at high prices for hedging [8]. - PP: The supply is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term market will oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - MEG: The supply is at a high level and has room for further increase. The inventory is at a low level. The polyester load has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term [9]. - Crude Oil: The short - term demand support is strong, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - Styrene: The supply inventory is accumulating slightly in the short - term, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the export demand. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - Ethylene Benzene (EB): The short - term pure benzene and styrene inventories are accumulating slightly. The demand is affected by the profit situation and export prospects. The short - term market will oscillate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - Soda Ash: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has some problems. It is in a weak - balance state, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [9][10].
商品期货早班车-20250630
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-06-30 04:17