点评报告：对央行国债买卖重启的预期或需推后

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since mid - June this year, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase, approaching key levels. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and one possible path is the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading, but it is expected to be postponed. The earliest restart may be around August [2][6][12]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity, with simultaneous increases in claims on the government and government deposits. The short - term yield declined rapidly after the central bank started trading treasury bonds last August, opening up downward space for the long - term yield [8][20]. - When the central bank's short - term treasury bonds mature, it does not directly lead to a contraction in liquidity. Instead, it indirectly affects liquidity by reducing government deposits. The central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. - Currently, the bond market is over - valued, and the long - term yield may be below the central bank's desirable range. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [2][34]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 When Will the Central Bank Restart Treasury Bond Trading? - Since mid - June, the bond market has been in a consolidation phase. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has been fluctuating around 1.65%, and the 30 - year around 1.85%. The 1 - year yield has decreased by 4bp from June 13 - 26. The 20 - year yield has dropped 3.5bp and remains a relative convex point on the curve. To break through downward, more impetus is needed, and the restart of treasury bond trading is one possible path [12]. 3.2 The Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Directly Releases Liquidity - From August to December last year, the central bank announced a cumulative net purchase of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds. By combining direct purchase and borrowing - and - selling methods, the estimated cumulative net purchase from August to December 2024 was close to 900 billion yuan. As of June 28 this year, the central bank has suspended treasury bond trading, and the cumulative maturity of treasury bonds from January to May was about 444 billion yuan [8][14]. - The central bank's purchase of treasury bonds can directly replenish liquidity. First, commercial banks buy treasury bonds, causing a decline in "other depository financial institution deposits" and an increase in government deposits. Then, the central bank buys from commercial banks in the secondary market, leading to an increase in claims on the government and a recovery of other depository financial institution deposits [20]. - After the central bank started trading treasury bonds in August last year, the short - term yield declined rapidly, and the 1 - year yield and DR007 inverted. In September, the short - term yield dropped by 12.2bp, followed by 10 - year yield declines of 12.7bp in November and 34.5bp in December [8][20]. 3.3 The Maturity of Central Bank - Held Treasury Bonds Does Not Directly Affect Liquidity and May Not Require Immediate Renewal - When treasury bonds held by the central bank mature, it leads to a reduction in both claims on the government and government deposits, resulting in a balance - sheet contraction. The maturity of short - term treasury bonds does not directly contract liquidity but indirectly affects it by reducing government deposits. Therefore, the central bank is not expected to renew them urgently [24]. 3.4 The Restart of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading May Still Need to Wait - The central bank suspended treasury bond trading in January this year, mainly considering two points: the fiscal supply situation and whether the treasury bond yield is within the central bank's desirable range. The central bank will resume operations based on market supply - demand and yield changes [28]. - From the perspective of fiscal supply rhythm, the restart of central bank's treasury bond trading may be postponed. August and November are expected to be key points for liquidity disturbances in the second half of this year, with estimated net financing exceeding 900 billion and 800 billion respectively. Therefore, the earliest restart may be around August [29]. 3.5 More Marginal Changes Are Needed for Interest Rates to Break Through Downward - Currently, the bond market has a high winning probability but low odds, with over - valuation and long - term yields potentially below the central bank's desirable range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fit value is significantly higher than the current 1.65% level. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year treasury bonds around a yield of 1.65% when there are adjustments, and pay attention to the callback risk if the yield falls to 1.6% [34].