7月债市，破局的开端

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in July may show a volatile and bullish trend. The fundamentals may not significantly interfere with the bond market. The market has already anticipated the good performance of the first - half economic data, and the impact of tariffs on bond market pricing has diminished. The logic of the bond market in July may revolve around capital prices, fiscal supply, and institutional demand. The capital market is expected to remain loose under the central bank's care, but short - term interest rates may not break through significantly before the central bank restarts Treasury bond purchases. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may face resistance at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively. The market is likely to maintain a volatile and bullish trend before a new round of interest - rate cut expectations. Investment strategies can consider a "short - credit + long - local - bond" portfolio for allocation, and choose the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250011) and 30 - year Treasury bond active bond (2500002) for trading [6][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Bond Market: The Beginning of Breaking the Situation - Economic Situation: In the first half of 2025, the domestic economy showed a steady recovery. The average growth rate of social financing stock from January to May was about 8.4%, with an increasing year - on - year growth rate. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods as of May was 6.4%, 2.77 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The average export growth rate from January to May was about 5.64%, and it was expected to perform well in June. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment generally remained in the range of 4% - 5% [4][10]. - Monetary Policy: After the quarter - end, the monetary policy is expected to support the continued loose liquidity. Although July is a large tax - payment period with potential local - bond supply pressure, the central bank has sufficient policy tools and space to deal with it. Tools such as restarting Treasury bond purchases and reserve - requirement ratio cuts may be considered, and the possibility of early policy implementation has increased. The capital market in July is expected to remain loose [4][20]. - Institutional Demand: Banks and insurance companies may still have a demand for bond replenishment at the beginning of July. Insurance companies may have more room to increase their investment in July as the ceiling of the predetermined interest rate of life - insurance products may be lowered in the third quarter, which is expected to increase premium income and support their allocation willingness, but the support for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds may be limited [4][26][29]. - Political Bureau Meeting: The July Political Bureau Meeting may focus more on economic development, and the policy direction is unlikely to change. It may continue to require fiscal and monetary policies to support economic stability and emphasize the tone and implementation direction of monetary policy in 2025 and fiscal incremental measures [31]. 3.2 Important Matters - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation: On June 24, local time, Fed Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut when answering questions from members of Congress, which increased the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut [35]. - MLF Operation in June: On June 24, the central bank announced a 300 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan considering the maturity scale [38]. 3.3 Money Market - Open - Market Operations and Capital Interest - Rate Trends: From June 23 to 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 126.72 billion yuan. From June 30 to July 4, it is expected that 202.75 billion yuan of base currency will be withdrawn, all from reverse - repurchase maturities. The 7 - day pledged - repurchase interest rate rose significantly near the quarter - end [40][43]. - Certificate of Deposit Interest - Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume: Last week, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 411.25 billion yuan. The primary - market issuance was mainly by city commercial banks. The issuance interest rate decreased compared with the previous week, and the secondary - market yields of all - term certificates of deposit increased [48][54]. 3.4 Bond Market - Primary Market: Last week, the issuance scale of local new special bonds increased significantly, promoting the acceleration of the net financing rhythm of long - term local bonds. The issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased, but the issuance result of the 30 - year ultra - long - term special Treasury bond was good. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 867.64 billion yuan, with a net financing of 815.818 billion yuan [57][59]. - Secondary Market: The market showed a bullish and steep trend of "short - term down, long - term up". The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds changed by - 1.00BP, - 0.69BP, 0.40BP, 2.85BP, 0.66BP, and 1.20BP respectively. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year Treasury and CDB active bonds decreased. The spread between the 10 - year Treasury active bond and the second - active bond narrowed, and the term spread and the spread between long - term local bonds and Treasury bonds widened [64][66][72]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Leveraged Trading and Spot - Bond Market Transactions: Last week, the leveraged trading scale decreased as the capital price increased. In the spot - bond market, state - owned banks continued to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, but the intensity weakened. Rural commercial banks switched to bond - replenishment operations, with a net purchase of 45.4 billion yuan. Securities firms and insurance companies increased their purchases of long - term Treasury bonds, and funds continued to increase their holdings but with reduced intensity [79][87]. - Institutional Leverage Ratio: In May 2025, the overall leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 118.46%, slightly higher than that in April. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities firms, and other institutions were about 110.53%, 183.89%, and 131.06% respectively [79]. - Trading - Desk Information: The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds is between 1.64% and 1.65%. The average duration of all pure - bond funds and high - performing pure - bond funds increased slightly last week [91][97].