产业经济周观点：新能源价格见底或是价格复苏的重要信号-20250630

Group 1 - The report indicates a clear trend of supply recovery in China, with a long-term focus on core asset styles and free cash flow combinations [2][3] - The gradual disintegration of the dollar capital cycle suggests a potential long-term depreciation of the dollar, with global capital likely to flow back to China [3] - Under the influence of both internal and external factors, Chinese assets are expected to undergo systematic restructuring, with a trend of rising Price-to-Book (PB) ratios being a main theme of the current bull market [3] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism towards core asset styles, highlighting sectors such as the ChiNext 50, large financials, Hang Seng China Enterprises, Hang Seng Technology, oil shipping, gold, energy, and non-ferrous metals, while also noting the need to monitor micro risks [3] - Industrial enterprise profit growth in May showed a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.1%, down 12.1 percentage points from April, primarily due to a decrease in profit margins [8] - The report emphasizes that the weakness in profit margins may reflect external disturbances, particularly from tariffs affecting operational costs, and suggests that the resilience of midstream manufacturing prices is crucial, with signs of a bottoming out in new energy prices [8] Group 3 - In the U.S., the PCE inflation rate rose to 2.3% in May, with core inflation at 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite weakening consumer spending [13][15] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 4.27% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 3.31% [16] - The report highlights that the financial and high-end manufacturing sectors performed well, while consumer sectors showed weakness, with the ChiNext index leading the gains at 6.58% [19][32]