2025年下半年铝策略报告-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the alumina ore price will continue to decline. The profit margin of alumina will lead to an oversupply situation, continuously suppressing the market. After the rainy season in Guinea arrives in September, the alumina supply - demand may enter a mismatch stage, and there may be an opportunity for the price to reach a high point. - In the third quarter, the ingot output of electrolytic aluminum will continue to decline. After the end of the export rush, combined with the decline in photovoltaic and automobile production schedules, the supply - demand will converge bidirectionally, forming a game. - It is expected that the aluminum price will first decline and then rise in the second half of the year, with the lowest point from July to August. The low inventory at home and abroad provides strong bottom support, and the possibility of a smooth decline is low. If consumption exceeds expectations, there may be a driving force for further upward movement. With the end of the Sino - US tariff relaxation period and the uncertain Middle East situation, there are many macro - uncertain risk factors, and the amplitude may widen. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Spread - In the first half of 2025, the alumina price dropped significantly, with the main contract closing at 2,986 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a total decline of 37%. The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,580 yuan/ton, a total increase of 4%. - In the first half of the year, the alumina spot premium decreased from 986 yuan/ton to 152 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum spot changed from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 80 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread changed from a discount of 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 165 yuan/ton. [6][8][12][15] 3.2 Supply - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina operating capacity will recover to 87.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.8%. The output in the first half of the year was 43.683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.1%. The output in the first half of the year was 21.678 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The aluminum - water ratio increased to around 76%. - The domestic bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan is gradually recovering. The import volume of Guinea bauxite is gradually increasing as the rainy - season impact fades. [6][29][31] 3.3 Demand - In the first half of the year, the start - up rhythm was affected by tariffs, with an average start - up rate of 60.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the processing PMI average at 51.8, a year - on - year increase of 4.5. It is expected that the decline space of the PMI in June will be significant. Among them, the start - up rates of aluminum plate, strip, foil, and cables decreased significantly year - on - year, while the profiles showed relative resilience. [4][7] 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the first half of the year, the alumina inventory increased by 19,500 tons to 31,200 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 99,000 tons to 94,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 258,000 tons to 337,000 tons. - Social inventory: The alumina inventory decreased by 70,000 tons to 25,600 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 463,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 39,500 tons to 142,500 tons. [4][7] 3.5 Future Capacity Projections - Domestic alumina: There are multiple new and replacement projects in various provinces, with a total planned capacity of 11.3 million tons. - Overseas alumina: There are many planned capacity expansion projects in countries such as India and Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 30.35 million tons. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains high and stable, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacity and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new and replacement capacity in 2025 is 3.32 million tons. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: The planned restart scale in 2025 is 1.01 million tons, and 205,000 tons have been restarted in the first quarter. [67][68][69] 3.6 Options - Alumina options: Analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. - Shanghai aluminum options: Also analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. [91][94][98][102]