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棉花周报:宏观氛围好转,郑棉短期或能延续强势-20250630
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-06-30 05:29

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The industry investment rating suggests the cotton market is "oscillating with a slight upward trend, and low-buying is advisable" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's June global cotton supply and demand forecast shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 710,000 tons, while global consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 304,000 tons. The planting area of cotton in the US in 2025 has decreased by 12% year-on-year to 9.867 million acres, with an 8% reduction in the main producing area of Texas. The planting progress is slow, and the good and excellent rate is 49%, lower than the same period last year. The USDA predicts that the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 3.18 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but the weather in the third quarter remains a key variable [3] - In Xinjiang, China, as the temperature rises, the cotton growth progress has accelerated, generally entering the early flowering stage, and pests have appeared in some cotton fields. The Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory forecasts that most areas in Xinjiang will experience continuous high temperatures above 35°C in the next week, with local short-term heavy precipitation, so the impact of weather changes on cotton growth needs continuous attention [3] - This week, the trend of cotton yarn has been relatively weaker than that of cotton. The spot transaction price has been relatively stable. The processing profit of inland spinning mills has remained around the cash flow. Downstream orders have decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. Spinning mills mainly make rigid-demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude [3] - As of the end of May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April. The monthly decline has exceeded 600,000 tons for three consecutive months, and the de-stocking speed has reached a new high in the same period in recent years. If this pace continues, the inventory may drop to a low level before the new cotton is listed (September - October), intensifying market concerns about tight supply and supporting the futures price [3][32] - As of June 27, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,302 lots, with 302 lots of valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 423,800 tons, compared with 433,400 tons on June 20 [3] - The basis of 31-grade double-28 Xinjiang new cotton against the 05 contract is 950 - 980 yuan/ton, and that of double-29 cotton is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - The overall average cost of ginning plants this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of some ginning plant production capacity in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook for the new season, the expected opening price is not expected to be high [3] - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran shows fragility, but the short-term easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and China's timely introduction of incremental reserve policies have boosted market confidence in the short term through the expectation of monetary easing [3] - Recent cotton price rebounds are mainly due to crowded short-selling funds, low valuations, and the depletion of high-quality domestic cotton caused by reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn this year, which has led to a continuous strengthening of the basis. However, the downstream is in a loss state, so in the short term, attention should be paid to the issuance of sliding-scale import quotas or even state reserve sales that may be triggered by the difficulties faced by spinning mills, which could effectively address the continuously decreasing cotton inventory [3] Summary According to the Directory Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA estimates that the world will continue to accumulate cotton stocks. From the 2020/21 season to the 2024/25 season, the global ending inventory has generally increased, and the inventory-to-use ratio has also risen from 58.54% to 67.97% [5] - The new season is still expected to have an oversupply of cotton globally [8] US Cotton Exports - The export prospects of US cotton in the next season face significant challenges and uncertainties. The trade war poses a major risk to the supply chain, and textile-producing countries are very cautious about forward purchases of US cotton. If China's tariffs on US cotton continue, China's purchases of US cotton in the next season will also remain stagnant. Additionally, Brazil's record-high production will compete with US cotton in the supply market, and the export contracts for US cotton in the 2025/26 season are expected to be signed very slowly [14] Overseas and Domestic Market Conditions - Overseas cotton mill operating rates are relatively stable [18] - In China, the downstream operating rates have slightly rebounded, and the operating rates of weaving factories have steadily increased [21][24] - Chinese cotton spinning enterprises maintain rigid-demand restocking, with insufficient initiative for restocking [27] - In China, the raw material inventory of weaving factories has declined, while the finished product inventory has continued to accumulate [30] - The total volume of new cotton warehouse receipts in China remains high [34]