金融期货早班车-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The regression of the stock index discount is occurring, and the current direction is unclear. A neutral strategy can be considered. In the near - term, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised. For bond futures, long - end bulls are strong, and a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [3][4]. - Medium - to long - term: The report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Buying the IF, IC, and IM forward contracts at low prices is recommended [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to close at 3424.23 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to close at 10378.55 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to close at 2124.34 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 0.18% to close at 988.21 points. Market turnover was 15,757 billion yuan, a decrease of 475 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+2.17%), communications (+1.79%), and textile and apparel (+1.23%) led the gains; banks (-2.95%), public utilities (-1.01%), and food and beverages (-0.8%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,379/267/1,771 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 37, - 117, - 23, and 177 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +68, +49, - 55, and - 62 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 102.94, 73.93, 39.36, and 27.57 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.39%, - 8.76%, - 6.97%, and - 7.07% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 28%, 19%, 18%, and 17% respectively [2]. - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yields [6]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On June 26, the yields of treasury bond futures declined across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.355, down 1.5 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.465, down 1.75 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.578, down 0.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.91, down 0.50 bps [3]. - For the current active 2509 contracts, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of - 1.5 bps, - 1.75 bps, - 0.55 bps, and - 0.50 bps respectively [3]. - The table shows the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts and spot bonds, including price changes, trading volume, open interest, and other information [8]. - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [9][10] 3. Short - term Funding Rate Market Changes - The table shows the changes in short - term capital interest rates, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007, comparing the current price, yesterday's price, one - week ago, and one - month ago [12] 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recent social activities and real estate sentiment have contracted [12]