宏观周报（6月第4周）：以伊达成停火提振市场风险偏好-20250630

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant increase last week, with an average trading volume of 1,486.7 billion CNY, up 271.6 billion CNY from the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.73%[8] - The consumer sector showed strong performance, particularly in technology and defense industries, while oil and food sectors lagged[8] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth forecast for Q3 2025 is expected to be influenced by weak demand and industrial price adjustments, with PPI anticipated to stabilize in the third quarter[2] - Industrial profits for May showed a significant decline of 9.1% year-on-year, with total profits for the first five months at 2.72 trillion CNY, down 1.1%[9][10] - Fixed asset investment growth for May was reported at 2.74%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from April[10] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained a supportive liquidity stance, with a net injection of 12,672 billion CNY last week through various operations[8] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields[8] - The offshore RMB appreciated against the USD, with the dollar index falling by 1.52%[8] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include potential further weakening of the economic fundamentals and escalation of geopolitical tensions[2] - The upcoming release of manufacturing PMI data for June is anticipated to provide further insights into economic conditions[20]