2025年下半年棉花策略报告-20250630
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-30 05:37
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. Although the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow compared to the previous year, the upward movement of cotton prices is difficult due to factors such as the expected high - yield in some major producing countries, geopolitical conflicts, and the expected slowdown of the global economy [3][8]. - In the international market, the center of the ICE US cotton futures price in the 2025/26 season is expected to move slightly higher than in the first half of the year, but the increase is limited, and it will generally operate within a range. Attention should be paid to macro and weather disturbances [8]. - In the domestic market, the bottom of the cotton price may have emerged, but the rebound of the cotton price is under pressure due to the high - yield expectation, and the upward space is relatively limited. The center of the Zhengzhou cotton futures price in the second half of the year may move slightly higher, but the space is expected to be limited [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Global: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 25.472 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 639,000 tons. However, the market believes that the USDA underestimates the global cotton output, and the actual output decline may be lower [3][38]. - US: The planting area of US cotton this year has decreased by about 10 - 15% year - on - year. As of June 17, the area of US cotton affected by D1 - D4 level drought accounted for 3%, a week - on - week decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points. The good and excellent rate of US cotton is 48%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the performance during the harvest period last year. It is expected that the final output of US cotton this year will be basically the same as last year [3]. - China: Most of the new domestic cotton is in the budding and flowering stages, and the weather conditions are relatively suitable. It is a market consensus that the planting area has increased year - on - year, and the probability of a high - yield this year is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Demand - Global: The USDA June report predicts that the global cotton consumption in the 2025/26 season will be 25.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 263,000 tons. However, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and the expected slowdown of the global economic growth, the future uncertainty is still relatively large [4]. - China: From January to May, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear, and textiles in China were 613.84 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. The cumulative retail sales of clothing products from January to May were 443.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The year - on - year increase in retail sales of textile and clothing products was lower than that of total social retail sales. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive load of yarn was 53.88%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 52.66%, a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 49.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the load of pure cotton grey cloth was 45.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.74 percentage points [4]. 3.3 Import and Export - US Cotton Exports: As of June 13, the total signing volume of US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season was 2.731 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 188,000 tons. The signing volume of exports to China was 169,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.015 million tons. The proportion of US cotton exports to China was only about 6%, reaching a historical low [5]. - China's Imports: In May, China's cotton imports were 40,000 tons, a new low in recent years, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. In May, the import volume of cotton yarn was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [5]. - China's Exports: In May 2025, the monthly export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 12.631 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the cumulative export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and their products was 58.476 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 13.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative export from January to April was 58.195 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% [5]. 3.4 Inventory - China: As of the end of June, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.1269 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 331,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons; the total was 4.057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 342,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 300,000 tons. As of the week of June 20, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.14 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.98 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 days. As of the week of June 21, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 27.38 days, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 days; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 35.22 days, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88 days. As of the week of June 20, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 5.94 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.34 days; the inventory of pure cotton grey cloth was 33.96 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.18 days [6]. 3.5 Price - The spot price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn has fallen more than the futures price of cotton yarn. On June 27, 2025, the closing price of cotton yarn was 20,105 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 390 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 1.90%. The price of pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1,920 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 8.61% [29][31]. - The basis of cotton yarn has fluctuated and declined. On June 27, 2025, the basis of cotton yarn was 275 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1,530 yuan/ton [33][35].