铅锌日评：反弹持续性有限-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of lead and zinc prices has limited sustainability. For lead, although the price has been rising due to raw material and production cuts in secondary lead, the downstream has not entered the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which restricts the upward momentum. For zinc, although the price has rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, the rebound may suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [1]. Summary by Related Information Lead - related Information - Price and Market Indicators: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton with no change; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,125 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the Shanghai lead basis was - 125 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 40,650 lots, down 22.78%; the open interest was 51,800 lots, up 1.21%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.78, down 23.70%; the LME inventory was 273,425 tons with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 45,885 tons, up 1.34%; the closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) was 2,041.50 dollars/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.39, down 0.73% [1]. - Enterprise Operating Rates: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.21%, down 3.8 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 34.6%, up 4.9 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 68.77%, down 4.05 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - Enterprise Output: According to Tibet珠峰's 2024 annual report, the total output of lead, zinc, and copper concentrate products was 93,700 tons, including 45,100 tons of lead metal (up 19.22% year - on - year), 47,500 tons of zinc metal (up 5.39% year - on - year), 1,149 tons of copper metal (up 28.99% year - on - year), and 74.27 tons of silver metal [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, raw materials are in short supply, and some refineries have cut or stopped production. The demand side is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation [1]. Zinc - related Information - Price and Market Indicators: On June 30, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,500 yuan/ton, up 1.40%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 140 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 225,824 lots, up 34.33%; the open interest was 142,428 lots, up 5.01%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.59, up 27.93%; the LME inventory was 119,225 tons with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 6,372 tons, down 1.56%; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) was 2,778.50 dollars/ton, up 0.31%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, up 0.46% [1]. - Enterprise Operating Rates: From June 21 to June 27, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 56.21%, down 2.39 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, down 8.58 percentage points month - on - month; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, down 0.28 percentage points month - on - month [1]. - Supply - side News: In July, a zinc mine in North China plans to conduct maintenance for about 10 days, which will affect about 1,500 metal tons of zinc concentrate; as of June 27, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 313,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - Fundamentals: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate has improved, the restriction on refinery production due to raw material shortages has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The demand side is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed [1].