碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be loose in June 2025, and the domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate within the range of 30,000 - 50,000 with support and 60,000 - 66,000 with pressure [1][6] - The production and export volume of various lithium - related products in China may change in June 2025, affected by factors such as new project production, production line maintenance, and cost - profit situations [4][5][6] Summary by Related Information Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On June 27, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 63,240, 63,340, 63,200, and 63,200 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 615,010 lots, and the open interest was 341,448 lots [1] - Spot Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 61,150 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, an increase of 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The prices of other lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [1] Company Project Updates - Domestic Vision Power: The energy - storage battery production line of its factory in Tennessee, USA, has been put into operation, with a first - phase capacity of 700MWh, which can meet the demand for high - quality energy - storage products from leading customers [1] - Zhengli New Energy: The topping - out ceremony of the 20GWh automotive power lithium - battery project at its Yinhe District base in Changshu, Jiangsu, was held on June 7, 2026. The first phase is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2028 [2] - Zhejiang Jianli Chemical: The hexafluorophosphate project was successfully put into operation at one time. The company's new energy materials construction project has a total investment of 510 million yuan, with a phased construction plan [2] - Henan Puyang Chuangnan Company: The project has completed preparations and entered the trial - production stage, with a total investment of 600 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 4GWh after full completion [3] - Huamei Xingtai Technology: It signed a project to build a production line with an annual output of 40 million mobile power supplies, 200 million Wi - Fi lithium batteries and supporting facilities in Hunan Automobile High - tech Zone, with a total investment of 500 million yuan [3] Production and Supply Outlook - Lithium Carbonate: The production (import) volume in June may increase or decrease. The production profit of some domestic lithium carbonate production methods is negative, and the import window is closed [4] - Lithium Hydroxide: The production volume in June may change, and the export profit is negative, which may lead to an increase in the export volume in June [4] - Phosphoric Acid and Related Products: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate varies by production process. The production volume of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate in June may increase or decrease [5] - Other Products: The production, export, and inventory of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and battery cells in June may also change [6]