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沪铜日评20250630:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比略增-20250630
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-30 05:55

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Shanghai copper price is expected to be cautiously strong due to disruptions in multiple overseas copper mine productions, low electrolytic copper inventories both at home and abroad, and the easing of mutual tariff levies between China and the US leading to export expectations. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels: for Shanghai copper, the support is around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance is around 80,000 - 82,000; for London copper, the support is around 9,000 - 9,300 and the resistance is around 9,800 - 10,000; for US copper, the support is around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance is around 5.0 - 5.5 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract: On June 27, 2025, the closing price was 79,920, up 1,030 from the previous day; the trading volume was 131,756 lots, an increase of 54,456 lots; the open interest was 215,705 lots, an increase of 24,565 lots; the inventory was 25,346 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 80,125, up 1,185 [2]. - London Copper: On June 27, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,879, down 17 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 91,275 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 240.67, down 79.16; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 23.89, down 14.53; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0899, up 0.12 [2]. - COMEX Copper: On June 27, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.122, up 0.14; the total inventory was 209,281, an increase of 3,146 [2]. Important Information - Macro - economic: The US Senate's budget reconciliation bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and make three corporate tax cuts set to expire in 2020 in the House version permanent, but no final agreement has been reached on the "state and local tax deduction" (SMLT). The US May CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2]. - Supply - side: Ivanhoe Mines' 2025 Kanoa - Kakula copper production guidance is 370,000 - 420,000 metal tons, a 28% decrease from the initial guidance due to an earthquake at the Zakuza copper mine. Several mines had production issues, while some mines like Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine in Ecuador, Julong copper mine, and ACC Metals' Gediktepe mine have expansion plans that may increase domestic copper concentrate production (import) in June. The China copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased from last week, and port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volumes have changed accordingly [2]. - Demand - side: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased (decreased) from last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed accordingly. The production start - up rate of Chinese copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventories of relevant enterprises have changed. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper liquid - coated wire has increased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of relevant enterprises have increased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline (increase, increase, decrease) [2]. Trading Strategy Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [2].