贵金属日评：特朗普政府减税法案参议院获批，美国消费端通胀PCE环比升高-20250630

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Concerns about the rebound in consumer - end inflation have delayed the expected timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and geopolitical risks that are difficult to resolve may cause precious metal prices to weaken first and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: - Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 773.26 yuan/gram. The trading volume of the active contract was 169,217, and the open interest was 129,822. The inventory was 18,237 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 1.50, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 3.32 [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 8,792.00. The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 37,784,179.63 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price was 3,271.75 dollars/ounce [1]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings were 954.82, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 441.92 [1]. - Silver: - Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8,773.00 (in yuan/ten - gram). The trading volume of the active contract was 469,549, and the open interest was 331,807. The inventory was 1,295,663 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.00, and the basis between the spot and futures was - 23.00 [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 36.17. The trading volume of the active contract was 65,468, and the open interest was 24,788. The inventory was - 930,224.12 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price was 37.16 dollars/ounce [1]. - US iShare silver ETF holdings were 14,763, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 5,959.97 [1]. Important Information - Policy and Politics: - The Trump administration's tax - cut bill was approved by the US Senate. The US House of Representatives' Republican tax bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and make three corporate tax breaks permanent [1]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated all US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened to impose new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary warned of a 301 investigation [1]. - The EU and the US believe they can reach a tariff agreement by the end of July. The US Treasury Secretary hinted that the "tariff deadline" in July might be extended to September 1st [1]. - Macroeconomic Data: - The US May consumer - end inflation core PCE annual rate was 2.7%, higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut times are still in September/October/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - For investors, it is recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].