黑色金属数据日报-20250630

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black metal market shows mixed trends. The futures market is generally stronger than the spot market, with the basis steadily shrinking. There is no strong rebound driver for the black metal sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of coal and coke price rebounds on the cost side [5]. - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are continuously improving, with the spot market gradually strengthening and the futures market resonating upward. However, the spot performance is still weak, and attention should be paid to the cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunities brought by the high water level of the coke futures [6]. - The short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, and their prices are mainly volatile, generally following the trend of steel [7]. - The overall situation of industrial products has improved, and the iron ore price has risen. Short - term market sentiment is positive, and short positions in iron ore can be temporarily avoided [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On June 27, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3005 yuan/ton with a rise of 34 yuan (1.14%), HC2601 at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 35 yuan (1.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2995 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.98%), HC2510 at 3121 yuan/ton with a rise of 29 yuan (0.94%), etc. [2] - Spreads: The cross - month spreads, such as RB2510 - 2601 at - 10 yuan/ton with a change of - 5 yuan, and the spreads/price ratios/profits, like the coil - to - rebar spread at 126 yuan with a change of - 4 yuan, are also presented [2]. Spot Market - Steel Products: Shanghai rebar was priced at 3090 yuan/ton with a rise of 40 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3200 yuan/ton with a rise of 30 yuan, etc. [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 170 (+30), and the coking coal price index was 937.3 (+0.1). In the Mongolian coal market, prices showed some changes, such as Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian 5 raw coal at 731 (+7) [6]. Analysis by Product - Steel Products: The futures are stronger than the spot, and the basis is shrinking. Unilateral trading can be on the sidelines, and attention can be paid to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. Short - term long positions in the coil - to - rebar spread can be considered [5][9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The fundamentals are improving, the spot and futures are strengthening, but the spot is still weak. Speculative short positions should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers can participate in coke selling hedging [6][9]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The short - term sentiment has improved, and prices are volatile, following steel. Low - price options can be bought at low prices [7][9]. - Iron Ore: The price has risen, and short positions can be temporarily avoided in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9].