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甲醇日评:短期预计震荡运行-20250630
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-30 06:03

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil price fell, and methanol also pulled back. The methanol market will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The current supply - demand situation of domestic methanol has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the market in the future still lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume from South America is stable, which compensates for the loss of Middle - East plant maintenance to some extent. The port inventory increased last week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate, and the operating range of the 09 contract is estimated to be between 2300 - 2500 yuan/ton. (View score: 0) [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): On June 27, 2025, MA01 was 2419 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2328 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.34%); MA09 was 2393 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average): On June 27, 2025, the price in Taicang was 2810 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (1.63%); in Shandong it was 2260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.88%); in Guangdong it was 2465 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); in Shaanxi it remained unchanged at 2065 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing it remained at 2300 yuan/ton; in Hubei it remained at 2340 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia it was 1955 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.26%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 391 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, up 59 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: On June 27, 2025, the price of Buzhouke SQ5500 was 430 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.58%); the price of Datong Q5500 remained at 490 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 remained at 495 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The price in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively on June 27, 2025 [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: On June 27, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol production remained at 493.40 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained at - 460 yuan/ton; the profit of Northwest MTO was 550.60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.90%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1473.07 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton (3.98%) [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profits: On June 27, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 286.77 yuan/ton, down 3.77 yuan/ton (-1.30%); the profit of MTBE was 169.12 yuan/ton, up 63.60 yuan/ton (60.27%); the profit of formaldehyde remained at - 252.40 yuan/ton; the profit of dichloromethane remained at 518 yuan/ton [1]. 4. Important Information - Domestic Futures Price: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and declined. It opened at 2417 yuan/ton, closed at 2393 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 986,560 lots, and the open interest was 784,498 lots, showing reduced volume and position [1]. - Foreign Information: After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the industry expected that the import supply from a certain Middle - East country would return to normal. The important downstream factories continued the negative feedback, and the US - dollar fixed prices were stable and then declined. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month was 275 - 285 US dollars/ton, and the merchants' intended selling price was 284 - 285 US dollars/ton. The non - Iranian cargoes were mainly traded at formula prices. Some buyers intended to buy imported cargoes arriving in late July. On Friday, a small number of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - month were reported to be traded at 280 US dollars/ton. In other Middle - East regions, a small number of factories' intended selling points for far - month arriving cargoes were at +1.9%, and the buyers' psychological price was relatively low, with no real - deal transactions for the time being. The CFR China price was in the range of 216 - 280 US dollars/ton [1].