交银国际每日晨报-20250630

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is positioned for potential upward movement due to a combination of favorable factors, including manageable geopolitical risks and improved liquidity conditions [4][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors with greater upward elasticity based on market congestion indicators, particularly noting the divergence in trading activity across different sectors [3][4] Market Strategy - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is nearing previous highs, with conditions ripe for breaking out of a sideways trading pattern, pending key catalysts [3] - It notes that the overall trading sentiment in the Hong Kong market remains relatively positive, although the technology sector shows a significant decline in trading activity, with transaction volumes and turnover rates falling to around the 40th percentile historically [3] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have seen their volume and price indicators rise to historically high levels, indicating high congestion and potentially limited upward space [3] - In contrast, sectors such as semiconductors, hardware, software services, telecommunications, home appliances, and retail have experienced significant declines in congestion, suggesting ample upward elasticity [3] Company-Specific Insights - Xiaomi Group has launched the YU7 model, with initial orders exceeding 289,000 units, indicating strong market demand [5][8] - The report raises Xiaomi's automotive sales forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 400,000 and 700,000 units respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [8] - BeiGene is accelerating its pipeline with five new molecules entering clinical trials in 2023 and ten in 2024, driven by new technology platforms [9][10] - BeiGene's differentiated approach in hematological malignancies shows promising results, with a high overall response rate in clinical studies [10][11]