集运日报：“90天暂停期”关税有趋于缓和迹象，空单可考虑部分止盈，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250630

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "90 - day suspension period" tariff shows signs of easing, and short - position holders can consider partial profit - taking. Given the high difficulty in trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe the market [1]. - With the high volatility of crude oil and the strong macro - attribute of European routes, the trading difficulty is high. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price - holding measures. Without more positive news, the market is more likely to decline than rise [3]. - The pessimistic sentiment has subsided, and the spot freight rates are fluctuating. The overall market lacks a clear trading direction, and the market fluctuates widely under the game between long and short positions. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Index - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. b. Market and Contract Information - On June 27, the main contract 2508 closed at 1805.0, with a gain of 2.33%, a trading volume of 39,400 lots, and an open interest of 39,100 lots, a decrease of 2425 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%. The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4]. c. Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental shift, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000, and short - position holders can consider taking profits. Risk - takers can consider lightly trying long positions on the 2510 contract below 1300, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. d. Geopolitical and Economic Data - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen have launched 309 ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and drones at Israel since mid - March, with 25 launches this month [5]. - Option markets show that the possibility of oil transportation disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is only 4% after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel. Goldman Sachs predicts that international oil prices are unlikely to rise further in the future [5]. - In June, the preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - In May, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April [1]. - In June, the preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].