聚酯数据日报-20250630

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The war between Iran and Israel has eased, causing a significant decline in the crude oil market, and the chemical industry has followed suit. The downstream polyester load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, but the actual polyester output has reached a new high. Recent promotions have led to inventory reduction. PTA will likely see inventory reduction in the coming period, and the actions of major factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has recently experienced rapid inventory reduction, and inventory levels have increased significantly. The market's purchasing willingness has strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. The maintenance of a Northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow the trend of the crude oil decline. The rising ethylene price has pushed up the cost, and Iran's petrochemical exports are expected to be affected, but the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has expanded, and the recent obstruction of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. Polyester production cuts will have a certain impact on the market, and a large - scale Northeast plant has restarted. The port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little, and the recovery of the load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants will put pressure on the market, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 502.9 yuan/barrel on June 26, 2025, to 498.5 yuan/barrel on June 27, 2025, a decrease of 4.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: PTA - SC spread increased from 1115.4 yuan/ton to 1155.4 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3052 to 1.3189; CFR China PX price increased from 853 to 868; PX - naphtha spread increased from 274 to 298; PTA main contract futures price rose from 4770 yuan/ton to 4778 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 5020 yuan/ton to 5025 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 417.9 yuan/ton to 341.3 yuan/ton; disk processing fee decreased from 157.9 yuan/ton to 84.3 yuan/ton; main contract basis decreased from 259 to 255; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 35952 to 35022 [2]. - MEG: MEG main contract futures price dropped from 4293 yuan/ton to 4271 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (100.69) yuan/ton to (100.88) yuan/ton; MEG domestic price decreased from 4379 yuan/ton to 4346 yuan/ton; main contract basis increased from 67 to 69 [2]. - Industry Chain开工率: PX operating rate remained at 80.43%; PTA operating rate remained at 78.56%; MEG operating rate remained at 55.77%; polyester load decreased from 90.01% to 89.35% [2]. - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F price decreased from 7165 yuan/ton to 7075 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from 156 to 73; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 7475 yuan/ton to 7360 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow decreased from (34) to (142); DTY150D/48F price decreased from 8410 yuan/ton to 8330 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from 201 to 128; filament sales increased from 28% to 49% [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6855 yuan/ton to 6805 yuan/ton; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 196 to 153; staple fiber sales increased from 43% to 53% [2]. - Polyester Chip: Semi - bright chip price remained at 5905 yuan/ton; chip cash flow increased from (204) to (197); chip sales increased from 40% to 62% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [2]