Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the rubber industry is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of rubber has been falsified, and new driving factors need to be awaited. The overall price range is adjusted from the initial forecast of 15,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton to 12,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The upward trend may be driven by supply - side factors such as weather and policies, while the downward trend may be dragged by macro factors like tariff policies and global economic recession expectations [8][86] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Review of the performance of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber - In the first half of 2025, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply. In Q1, it remained in a high - level sideways pattern, and in Q2, prices dropped from the high level due to factors such as increased exports from overseas rubber - producing countries, a significant increase in domestic imports, and US reciprocal tariffs. In Q1, the RU index oscillated between 16,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. In January, prices fluctuated, with raw material prices dropping significantly compared to Q4, and increasing domestic imports and seasonal inventory accumulation suppressing prices. In February, prices rose after the Spring Festival due to seasonal production cuts overseas. In March, the rumored state reserve purchase had limited impact on the market. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in Q2, the "reciprocal tariff" in the US affected the market, and the increase in import data in March (18% month - on - month and 20.6% year - on - year) also influenced prices. The significant increase in exports from rubber - producing countries and domestic imports in the first half of the year falsified the previous long - term logic, and prices fell back to the level of the same period in 2024 [14][15] 1.2 Review of spreads and price differences - In the first half of the year, state reserve purchases and capital actions strongly disturbed the spreads of Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber. In mid - April, after the rumor of the state reserve purchasing 2024 full - latex warehouse receipts, the 9 - 5 and 1 - 9 spreads of Shanghai rubber narrowed rapidly. The 9 - 5 spread even reached a negative level, and the 1 - 9 spread dropped from over 1,000 yuan/ton to below 700 yuan/ton. Later, the 9 - 5 spread gradually recovered, but the 1 - 9 spread remained at a relatively low level at the end of June. For No. 20 rubber, in Q1, the spot was tight, and the spreads showed a backwardation structure. In Q2, although imports increased, capital actions led to the cancellation of warehouse receipts, and the spreads strengthened again. By the end of June, the spreads weakened but still showed a slight premium. In the third quarter, as production increased, the spreads may return to the previous premium pattern [19][23] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 The Fed lowers economic expectations, raises inflation and unemployment expectations, and internal differences widen - The Fed has paused rate cuts for the fourth consecutive time, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% and the monthly balance - sheet reduction limit at $40 billion. Due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Fed remains cautious. The June economic forecast solidifies the "stagflation" expectation, with economic growth being lowered and unemployment and inflation being raised. The Fed believes that tariffs will have a "one - time" impact on inflation. The internal differences in the Fed are mainly due to the uncertainty of US tariff negotiations and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [24][27] 2.2 Geopolitical situation and tariff policies disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty - US tariff policies disrupt global trade, causing a 0.2% year - on - year decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, a 2.9 - percentage - point drop compared to before the tariff war. Multiple international institutions have lowered their global economic growth forecasts for 2025. The recent escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, pushing up oil prices. This has put central banks in a dilemma between fighting inflation and stabilizing growth [28][34] 3. Upstream and downstream of the industrial chain 3.1 Upstream supply and raw materials - The total planting area of ANRPC is at a high level with a slight downward trend. The new planting area has increased in some countries but cannot offset the reduction in the original planting area. The supply - side output price elasticity still exists. In 2024, global natural rubber production increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Emerging rubber - producing countries such as Côte d'Ivoire have seen rapid growth, partially offsetting concerns about the decline in traditional rubber - producing countries. The second half of the year is the peak production season for natural rubber, and the supply is expected to increase [35][47] 3.2 Imports and inventories - In the first half of 2025, domestic imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly. In May, the total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a 23.5% increase. As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly. The absolute value of domestic inventory is still at a moderately high level. With the increase in new rubber supply in the second half of the year, imports are expected to rise, and the inventory reduction in the middle - stream may slow down before the third quarter [50][52] 3.3 Downstream demand - Tire production growth is slowing down. In May 2025, the output of Chinese tire casings decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production of both all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. The all - steel tire market was supported by policies and exports, but the replacement market was weak. The semi - steel tire market faced increasing production and sales pressure due to rising inventory and new production capacity coming online. In the automotive market, production and sales increased in the first five months of 2025, with the passenger car and new - energy vehicle markets performing well. The heavy - truck market showed a slight increase in sales, mainly due to the implementation of the old - for - new policy [57][68] 4. Cost - profit and spread analysis 4.1 Cost - profit analysis - The losses of Thai latex and No. 20 rubber production have been partially repaired. Since May, continuous rain in the Thai production area has affected tapping, leading to an increase in raw material prices. Factories are stocking EUDR raw materials, and the price difference between EUDR raw materials and general raw materials has narrowed compared to last year [72] 4.2 Futures - spot spread analysis - In 2025, the non - standard arbitrage spread has fully returned. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the price of dark - colored rubber has been strong, and the spread between dark - and light - colored rubber has widened. In May 2025, NR was significantly stronger than RU, and the spread between them reached a multi - year high. The spread between RU2509 and mixed rubber also fully returned, with RU2509 trading at a rare discount to the mixed - rubber spot in late May. Later, attention should be paid to the spread trading opportunities such as going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509, and going long on RU and short on NR [75][85]
橡胶：多头逻辑被证伪，重新等待新驱动
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-06-30 06:13