Q2货政例会解读20250629：重新进入等待期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Monetary policy is likely to be in a "waiting period" at the beginning of the third quarter to re - observe the effects of policy implementation. It has returned to a stable and loose stage, and after the "double cuts" in May, it has re - entered the observation and waiting period for policy effect release. - The judgment on the economic situation has not changed much. External uncertainties have increased, while the confidence in domestic economic operations has been boosted. It is still difficult to change the low - level operation of prices. - The pressure on exchange - rate regulation has significantly decreased, while the attitude of maintaining stable interest rates remains unchanged [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monetary Policy Meeting: Re - entering the Waiting Period - Economic Situation: Externally, uncertainties have increased. The description of the world economic growth momentum has changed from "not strong" to "weakening", and "more trade barriers" is added. Domestically, the economy shows resilience and an improving trend, with the financial market described as stable and the real - estate market consolidating its "stable situation". The low - level operation of prices is a major challenge, and it is difficult to improve the price situation [8]. - Monetary Policy Operation: After the "double cuts" in May, the central bank now focuses on the "continuous release of policy effectiveness", promotes the reduction of institutional liability - side interest rates, and supports financing in areas such as science and technology innovation, consumption, and "two new and two important" fields. It has re - entered the "waiting period" for policy operation, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [9]. - Exchange - rate and Interest - rate Attitudes: The "three resolutes" in exchange - rate regulation are no longer mentioned, indicating that the pressure on RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange - rate regulation pressure has decreased. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining stable domestic asset - side yields is clear, and it no longer demands a significant decline in bond and credit interest rates [9]. Comparison between 2025Q2 and 2025Q1 Monetary Policy Meetings - Economic and Financial Situation: In Q2, the description of the external environment is more complex and severe, with the addition of "more trade barriers". The judgment on domestic economic operation is more positive, and the description of low - level price operation is added. - Monetary Policy Measures: In Q2, "selective reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" are not mentioned, replaced by flexible control of policy intensity and rhythm. The "three resolutes" in exchange - rate regulation are not mentioned, and the description of the real - estate market is more positive. The "platform economy" is not mentioned. - Monetary Policy Goals: Q2 emphasizes the domestic large - scale cycle more [14].