有色金属行业报告（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）：美经济软着陆可能性提升拉动工业金属价格

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the potential for a soft landing in the U.S. economy is driving up industrial metal prices. Precious metals are experiencing mixed performance, with gold decreasing by 2.90% and silver increasing by 0.60%. The expectation of interest rate cuts is intensifying, leading to a decrease in the cost-effectiveness of gold investments. However, in the long term, precious metals tend to perform well in a stagflation environment [4] - Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with LME copper increasing by 2.26%. The report notes that the copper market is influenced by tariff expectations and macroeconomic conditions, with a potential upward trend in prices due to a soft landing scenario [5] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, supported by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The report indicates that aluminum inventories are decreasing, and production is likely to ramp up as new orders emerge [6] - Uranium prices are nearing $80 per pound, with a potential shift in market dynamics as supply and demand conditions improve. The report suggests that speculative investments are increasing, indicating a forthcoming bullish trend [6] - Antimony prices have corrected from a peak of 260,000 CNY per ton to around 190,000 CNY per ton, with supply constraints persisting despite weak demand [8] - Cobalt prices have surged due to extended bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with current prices reported at 249,250 CNY per ton, reflecting a 6.75% increase. The report anticipates a steady upward trend in cobalt prices in the second half of the year [8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 4.61%, ranking 9th among industry sectors [17] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper rose by 2.26%, aluminum by 1.31%, zinc by 4.89%, lead by 2.33%, and tin by 2.68%. Precious metals: COMEX gold fell by 2.90%, while silver rose by 0.60%. Nickel and cobalt also saw increases of 0.86% and 6.84%, respectively [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease in copper by 8,377 tons, aluminum by 14,389 tons, zinc by 9,371 tons, and lead by 8,625 tons. Tin inventories increased slightly by 49 tons, while nickel inventories decreased by 1,258 tons [32]