烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda spot price has been continuously falling, mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of price cuts in the spot market, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders has significantly slowed down, intensifying the negative market feedback. However, the recent rebound in coal prices and the approaching peak summer electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, resulting in a certain repair of the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. Currently, the price of the main contract is at a large discount to the spot price, and in this situation, the short - term further decline space is limited, waiting for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda also has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals. In the second half of the year, focus on inventory - building in the alumina and export directions, and inventory - building during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to shortages [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under the weak demand expectation. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand still exists, with the core being to focus on the downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2,319 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 119 yuan/ton [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The local liquid caustic soda market price has remained stable. Due to poor order - signing and rising inventory in some enterprises, the price has been lowered. The current order - signing for high - concentration caustic soda is poor, and it is still mainly fulfilling previous orders [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The continuous decline in caustic soda spot prices is due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The slowdown in downstream and trader inventory - building demand has exacerbated the negative market feedback. The recent coal price rebound and the approaching summer peak electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, repairing the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern in the second half of the year will influence caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits is the main strategy. Currently, the large discount of the main contract to the spot limits short - term decline, waiting for spot price cuts and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda can rebound. Seasonal peak seasons in the past three years saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton. Focus on inventory - building in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors in the second half of the year. Shortages are likely when inventory is below 300,000 tons [2]. Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After making up the discount as delivery approaches, it will continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under weak demand. Low prices can stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand exists, with the key being downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].