Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to the upside space of industrial silicon due to production cut news and the market sentiment fermentation of polysilicon [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve new - energy consumption capacity, which is crucial for the construction of a new energy system [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 closing price is 8,030 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 772,679 lots and a position of 351,592 lots. For polysilicon, the PS2508 closing price is 33,315 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 294,743 lots and a position of 69,062 lots [1]. - Basis: Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies against different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - feed is +950 yuan/ton [1]. - Price: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9900 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - feed is 34500 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit: Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 3068 yuan/ton and - 6256 yuan/ton respectively, and polysilicon enterprise profit is - 6.9 yuan/kg [1]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.2 million tons, enterprise inventory is 22.3 million tons, and total industry inventory is 76.5 million tons. Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [1]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 26, the National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference. To improve new - energy consumption capacity, it will implement three measures: coordinating power transmission and local consumption, grid and regulation capacity construction, and energy supply and demand [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3].
工业硅:减产消息扰动,关注上方空间,多晶硅:关注市场情绪发酵
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-30 06:36