棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达，豆油：关注美豆面积报告

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the near - term fundamental improvement in the producing areas is limited, and a reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. - For soybean oil, attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Volumes - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, and (night session) was 8,324 yuan/ton with a - 0.62% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 210,910 hands to 442,785 hands, and open interest decreased by 4,500 hands to 450,508 hands [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,002 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase, and (night session) was 7,982 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 95,869 hands to 270,622 hands, and open interest decreased by 5,507 hands to 564,645 hands [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,466 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% decrease, and (night session) was 9,452 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease. Trading volume decreased by 86,818 hands to 214,216 hands, and open interest decreased by 8,794 hands to 319,403 hands [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,012 ringgit/ton with a 1.19% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 52.62 cents/pound with a - 0.44% decrease [1]. - Spot Prices - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,500 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,520 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: Spot price was 1,005 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - Basis and Spreads - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 124 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 238 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 1,090 yuan/ton, down from 1,122 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 374 yuan/ton, down from - 360 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down from 0 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, down from 62 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 70 yuan/ton, down from 78 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvesting progress has reached 98.3% and 55.3% respectively, and the expected yields are 50.3 million tons and 49 million tons [2]. - Due to the planned tariff increase, Argentine exporters have exported 6.1 million tons of soybeans and their derivatives since June, a 22% surge compared to the five - year average. The soybean export tariff will rise from 26% to 33% in July, and the tariffs for soybean oil and soybean meal will increase from 24.5% to 31% [5]. - Strategie Grains has raised the forecast for the 2025/26 EU rapeseed production to 19.2 million tons, a 600,000 - ton increase from last month's forecast and a 14% increase compared to 2024/25. The sunflower seed production forecast has been lowered by 300,000 tons to 10.1 million tons but is still 19% higher than 2024/25. The soybean production forecast remains at 3 million tons, 4% lower than last year [5]. - As of the week ending June 24, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Alberta was 57.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed crops are at various growth stages. In 2025, Canadian farmers planted 21.5 million acres of rapeseed, a 2.5% decrease from the previous year. In Saskatchewan, the planted area decreased by 0.5%, in Alberta by 2.8%, and in Manitoba by 9.2% [6]. - As of the week ending June 22, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 10.3% to 117,900 tons. From August 1, 2024, to June 22, 2025, exports reached 8.9319 million tons, a 52.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 1.2816 million tons [7]. - In May 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 831,193 tons, a 9.59% month - on - month decrease; rapeseed oil production was 353,218 tons, a 9.5% decrease; rapeseed meal production was 490,043 tons, a 9.76% decrease. The soybean crushing volume was 158,387 tons, a 7.97% increase; soybean oil production was 29,379 tons, a 6.64% increase; soybean meal production was 121,417 tons, a 4.66% increase [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on both [8].