公用事业行业跟踪周报：新疆、蒙西136号文省级方案发布，国家发改委预判迎峰度夏保供形势-20250630

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [1]. Core Insights - The Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia 136 documents have been released, outlining subsidy mechanisms for existing and new projects, with specific electricity pricing structures [4][6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates a better power supply situation during the summer peak in 2025, with an expected increase in national peak electricity load by approximately 100 million kilowatts year-on-year [4][6]. Industry Data Tracking - Electricity Price: The average grid purchase price in May 2025 was 394 RMB/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [40]. - Coal Price: As of June 27, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 620 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 26.89% but an increase of 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [44]. - Water Conditions: As of June 27, 2025, the water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 150 meters, with inflow and outflow rates showing year-on-year increases of 26% and 3%, respectively [56]. - Electricity Consumption: Total electricity consumption from January to May 2025 was 3.97 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [15]. - Power Generation: Cumulative power generation from January to May 2025 was 3.73 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [23]. - Installed Capacity: New installed capacity from January to May 2025 included 17.55 million kW of thermal power (up 45% year-on-year) and 19.785 million kW of solar power (up 150% year-on-year) [49][61]. Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Focus on regional thermal power investment opportunities during the summer peak [4]. - Hydropower: Recommend investing in hydropower due to low costs and strong cash flow [4]. - Nuclear Power: Highlight growth potential with recent approvals for new units [4]. - Green Energy: Emphasize the recovery of asset quality and growth potential in green energy [4]. - Grid Infrastructure: Suggest monitoring trends in smart grid and digitalization [4].