威力传动（300904）：风电齿轮箱稀缺标的，看好放量带来的业绩、估值弹性

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 75.96 CNY, based on an 18x PE valuation [5][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a rare player in the gearbox market, with significant earnings elasticity expected from its upcoming accelerator business [3][2]. - The global wind power gearbox market is projected to grow from approximately 5.688 billion USD in 2023 to 8.826 billion USD by 2030, indicating a substantial market opportunity [1][2]. - The company has maintained a strong market position in China's wind power gearbox sector, ranking third in market share in 2020 [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2013, focuses on precision transmission solutions, primarily manufacturing wind power yaw reducers, pitch reducers, and accelerators [1][11]. - The company went public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2023 and has consistently held a leading position in the domestic wind power reducer market [1][11]. Business Highlights - The company has optimized the internal structure of its wind power reducers, achieving a torque density of 300 Nm/Kg, which allows for cost control and improved product efficiency [2]. - The production project for precision wind power reducers is expected to be completed in 2024, with significant sales growth anticipated in 2025, leading to a projected gross margin recovery to 16.6% [2]. - A strategic cooperation agreement with Goldwind Technology was signed in October 2024, laying the foundation for future orders [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 0.52 million CNY, 3.05 million CNY, and 4.24 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 275.1%, 490.3%, and 38.7% [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to increase significantly from 345.19 million CNY in 2024 to 2.73 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 81.14% [4]. Market Dynamics - The global wind power gearbox market is highly concentrated, with the top four manufacturers holding over 70% market share [1]. - The demand for gearboxes is expected to rise due to the trend of larger wind turbines, which necessitate advanced gearbox technologies [51][53]. Competitive Position - The company has established strong relationships with major wind turbine manufacturers, becoming a key supplier to both domestic and international clients [31][1]. - The company has a robust R&D framework, with a focus on continuous innovation and the development of new products to meet evolving market demands [17][33].