如何释放服务消费潜力

Consumption Overview - As of 2023, China's final consumption expenditure accounts for approximately 56.8% of nominal GDP, significantly lower than developed economies like Japan and the US, which range from 65% to 81%[1][9]. - The contribution of government consumption to GDP in China is relatively close to developed countries, recorded at 17.2% in 2023, higher than the US at 13.4%[1][9]. Service Consumption Insights - Service consumption in China constitutes about 52-53% of total household expenditure, which is lower than the 56%-69% seen in the US, Japan, and South Korea[2][17]. - The value added by the accommodation and catering industry in China is only 1.8% of GDP, compared to 3.3% in the US and 2% in Japan[2][18]. Demand-Side Factors - To boost total demand, increasing disposable income and consumer expectations is crucial; the growth of disposable income is closely tied to nominal GDP growth[2][39]. - Short-term subsidies, such as those for food delivery services, are expected to have a significant impact, with estimates suggesting over 10 billion yuan in subsidies could increase daily orders by 30-40%[2][47]. Supply-Side Considerations - There is substantial room for investment in service-related sectors, with China's per capita railway kilometers at only 20% of that in developed countries and airport numbers at about 10%[3][17]. - The healthcare sector's value added is only 2.6% of GDP, significantly lower than the 5.3%-8% range in developed nations, indicating a need for improvement in healthcare services[3][18]. Long-Term Consumption Trends - Long-term consumption rates are influenced by factors such as population structure, economic growth, and institutional reforms, with a high savings rate acting as a slow variable in the economy[3][5]. - The current economic environment has led to a rise in the savings rate, with household savings increasing from 81.3 trillion yuan in 2021 to 159 trillion yuan in April 2023[5][42].