2025年6月PMI数据点评：PMI稳住了吗？

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - The production index and new orders index are both above 50%, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand[4] - The new export orders index has also shown a slight increase, reflecting a positive trend in external demand[4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The increase in June's PMI is supported by more working days compared to May, which historically correlates positively with PMI readings[4][11] - External uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, have decreased, alleviating downward pressure on the PMI[5] - Despite the improvements, the PMI remains below the neutral line, indicating ongoing structural risks in the economy[6] Group 3: Sector Performance - The PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises in June are 51.2%, 48.6%, and 47.3% respectively, with small enterprises showing a decline of 2.0 percentage points[6] - Price indices within the PMI have risen but remain below the neutral line, indicating continued pressure on pricing power due to tariff uncertainties[7] - The construction sector's PMI improved to 52.8%, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 50.1%, highlighting a divergence in sector performance[8][22]