Guotou Securities·2025-06-30 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the food and beverage industry [10] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with traditional consumption showing weakness while new consumption trends are on the rise [19][20] - The report highlights that companies are adopting more rational growth targets for 2025, with many setting revenue growth expectations in the single or low double-digit range [45][49] Summary by Sections 1. White Spirits - The white spirits sector is currently at a fundamental bottom, with companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye expected to perform well as the supply-demand imbalance eases [1] - Revenue growth for high-end, mid-range, and regional spirits in Q1 2025 was +7.9%, -13.3%, and +4.7% respectively, indicating a slowdown across the board [32] - Companies are focusing on channel expansion into lower-tier markets to enhance growth opportunities [48] 2. Beer - The beer industry faces volume and price pressures, with major brands experiencing significant declines in sales due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions [2][60] - Despite the challenges, the cost advantages from lower raw material prices are expected to provide profit elasticity in 2025 [60] - The report suggests focusing on Yanjing Beer, which is undergoing structural upgrades and state-owned enterprise reforms [2] 3. Other Alcoholic Beverages - The high-end positioning of Huangjiu (yellow wine) is progressing, and the domestic whiskey market is seen as a new growth avenue, with companies like Bairun Co. expected to perform well [3] 4. Dairy Products - The report emphasizes the importance of low-temperature dairy products and generous dividend policies from companies like Yili and China Feihe, despite the overall weak demand for long-life dairy products [4] 5. Soft Drinks - National leading brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring are outperforming regional brands, with new product launches gaining market attention [5] 6. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive, with new product innovations and the rise of bulk purchasing providing growth opportunities [6] 7. Condiments - The condiment sector is experiencing slow revenue growth, with pressures from both B-end and C-end markets [7] 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanjing Beer, and Yili [14][19]