格林大华期货研究院专题报告：新疆红枣调研报告

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - term view of buying on dips for the red date futures [26]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall reduction of first - crop red dates is significant, with less than 20% of sample orchards reaching the normal level, and the number of second - crop flowers has decreased by 35% compared to normal years. The specific fruit - setting quantity of second - crop flowers still needs to wait until around July 20 for a final judgment [23]. - In a year of reduced production, the price of red date futures usually rises rapidly from July to the centralized harvest period, divided into two stages: the game of reduction amplitude and the game of opening price. Currently, the market is mainly gambling on the actual growth of new - season red dates [25]. - Considering the reduction in 2025 compared to the historical high - yield year of 2024, the center of the game for the opening price should rise. Combining with the current CJ601 futures price, a short - term view of buying on dips is maintained [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Overview - Research Location: Main production areas of grey dates in Alar, Aksu, Tumushuke, and Makit [5]. - Research Time: From June 22 to June 27, 2025 [6]. - Research Method: - Orchard Selection: Invite local jujube farmers and agents as guides, randomly select sample orchards along the research route, with a total of 150 orchards covering the main grey - date production areas [6]. - Judgment Method: Observe the number and growth of flowers and fruits on the upper, middle, and lower layers of jujube trees from different directions in the orchard, and compare them with normal years to make five - level judgments [6]. 3.2 Regional Research Results - Alar Region: Nearly 80% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 54% of sample orchards have "few" or "few to no" second - crop flowers and fruits [7]. - Aksu Region: About 10% of sample orchards have normal first - crop fruits, 40% are "few", and 50% are "few to no". About 50% of orchards have normal second - crop flowers and fruits, and the overall performance is close to normal. However, the quality of red dates is relatively poor, and the yield rate is low [13]. - Tumushuke Region: 77% of sample orchards have "few to no" first - crop fruits, and 59% have "few" second - crop flowers and fruits. There are differences among different regiments, with 44th and 48th regiments performing better [16]. - Makit Region: About 70% of sample orchards have first - crop fruit yields lower than normal years. The quantity of second - crop flowers and fruits varies significantly [20]. 3.3 Other Findings - Weather Impact: This year's sand - dust weather in southern Xinjiang is significantly more than usual, which affects photosynthesis and pollination. The impact of high - temperature weather may be more significant due to the large specific heat capacity of sand [23]. - Farmers' Management: Due to last year's high yields, farmers' management enthusiasm remains high, but the fruit - setting rate of jujube trees with earlier girdling time is better [23]. - Growth Distribution: The quantity of flowers and fruits in the middle and lower layers of most jujube trees is significantly less than that in the upper layer, and orchards with larger tree and row spacing have more flowers and fruits [24]. - Growth Stagnation: Some jujube farmers reported that the growth of jujube fruits has stagnated, possibly due to the damage to trees caused by last year's high yields and management methods [24].